Trump vs Kim-Jong Un: War or Bluster?

[Butts]

Opening up the border with South Korea would need to be done....no doubt there will be a steady stream of refugees from North to South.

So the 38th Parallel "comes down" rather than the Berlin Wall allowing reunification ?

 

[Moonshot]

So the 38th Parallel "comes down" rather than the Berlin Wall allowing reunification ?

If you mean the DMZ between North and South then yes.....

 

[Drogba11CFC]

China has said that NK are on their own if they attack Guam, and Russia have said that they will have no choice but to back the USA if North Korea do attack.

 

[najaB]

China has said that NK are on their own if they attack Guam

Not a surprise.

and Russia have said that they will have no choice but to back the USA if North Korea do attack.

That *is* a surprise. Not that they would so do, but that they say as much in public.

 

[Darandio]

China has said that NK are on their own if they attack Guam, and Russia have said that they will have no choice but to back the USA if North Korea do attack.

Sources?

I've seen that Chinese media are suggesting that this is the line China should follow, but nothing from China themselves to confirm this. All I have seen from Russia is a call to de-escalate tensions.

 

[DaleCooper]

Be thankful Tony Blair isn't PM or we might be involved too.

Near the bottom of this page: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40901746

China's state-run Global Times newspaper wrote that Beijing should stay neutral if North Korea launches an attack that threatens the US.
But it also said that if the US and South Korea attacked North Korea to force regime change, then China must intervene to prevent it.

 

[fowler9]

Or just choke off the coal, oil and food supplies, stop any exports and freeze all bank accounts overseas. Destroy all bridges , dockyards and every power plant. Starve them out............

( terrible on an already oppressed and poor people mind and dropping anything on NK means SK gets shelled and China get upset.)

There is your problem right there. If you attack North Korea and don't get it exactly right Seoul is getting flattened. This is the capital of the country that builds loads of the worlds biggest ships, Samsung phones, etc. etc etc. People may be able to overlook cities in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan getting flattened (Which is wrong) but this would be on a whole new scale.

 

[TheEdge]

If thats what the state run media is saying it probably isn't too far from official policy. And that seems a rather sensible position for China to take.

 

[fowler9]

Be thankful Tony Blair isn't PM or we might be involved too.

Near the bottom of this page: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40901746

Yeah, China are quite happy to have a buffer zone to a country jam packed with US forces. They are happy with them at the end of the garden path, not on the doorstep.

 

[DaleCooper]

Yeah, China are quite happy to have a buffer zone to a country jam packed with US forces. They are happy with them at the end of the garden path, not on the doorstep.

That's what I think but then again what the hell do I know about international politics and the thought processes of the various national leaders?

 

[Drogba11CFC]

Sources?

I've seen that Chinese media are suggesting that this is the line China should follow, but nothing from China themselves to confirm this. All I have seen from Russia is a call to de-escalate tensions.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...a0a64977c92_story.html?utm_term=.5eaf146a0753

"Trump's response to Pyongyang's statements is understandable and justified, it's impermissible for one state in the world to threaten another with strikes," Ozerov said, noting that the reaction of other countries in such a situation would be the same. (RIA News)

 

[Darandio]

Thanks

 

[jon0844]

Is anyone else starting to think that this is all staged by Trump to make him look like a strong leader, and distract from his lack of success in just about everything else?

Talk big, wind up North Korea and make them say stupid things for their leader's giant ego, then let the diplomats sort everything out and make Donald look like he prevented a major war.

If China and Russia are even saying they'd back the USA, then - wow - he's even more of a hero.

 

[najaB]

Is anyone else starting to think that this is all staged by Trump to make him look like a strong leader, and distract from his lack of success in just about everything else?

I don't think it's been staged by Trump, but I think that you're right that the administration is taking advantage of the situation to divert attention.

 

[fowler9]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...a0a64977c92_story.html?utm_term=.5eaf146a0753

"Trump's response to Pyongyang's statements is understandable and justified, it's impermissible for one state in the world to threaten another with strikes," Ozerov said, noting that the reaction of other countries in such a situation would be the same. (RIA News)

That is hilarious. Its like two kids in the playground having a who's dad is the best argument, but with nuclear weapons.

 

[jon0844]

I don't think it's been staged by Trump, but I think that you're right that the administration is taking advantage of the situation to divert attention.

It's true that North Korea has wound up the world for years, but not specifically America (or maybe I misread the situation). It's just odd that all of a sudden it became such a big thing.

Trump may have made it major world news from what he said, and of course there may have been other ways to say things of such importance.

 

[fowler9]

It's true that North Korea has wound up the world for years, but not specifically America (or maybe I misread the situation). It's just odd that all of a sudden it became such a big thing.

Trump may have made it major world news from what he said, and of course there may have been other ways to say things of such importance.

There may have been other ways is putting it mildly. The leader of the most powerful military force in the world is going on Twitter saying to the most unstable leader of the most bizarre regime in the world "I'm gonna f*ck you up". Trump is a complete ass hat. Its like he is daring Kim Jong Un to do something.

 

[najaB]

It's true that North Korea has wound up the world for years, but not specifically America (or maybe I misread the situation). It's just odd that all of a sudden it became such a big thing.

It came to the fore because one American intelligence agency reported that DPRK's miniaturisation and hardening efforts were about two years further along than they had previously estimated.

Combined with the tests of a missile with the range to reach the American west coast as far south as Los Angeles that is a dangerous development.

 

[fowler9]

It came to the fore because one American intelligence agency reported that DPRK's miniaturisation and hardening efforts were about two years further along than they had previously estimated.

Combined with the tests of a missile with the range to reach the American west coast as far south as Los Angeles that is a dangerous development.

I can't see North Korea making a preemptive nuclear strike on America. The country would be vaporised very shortly afterwards. There is going to have to be another way to control this.

 

[jon0844]

It came to the fore because one American intelligence agency reported that DPRK's miniaturisation and hardening efforts were about two years further along than they had previously estimated.

Combined with the tests of a missile with the range to reach the American west coast as far south as Los Angeles that is a dangerous development.

Was this the same agency that knew Saddam could launch WMDs in 45 minutes?

Unless the US wanted to goad North Korea in public, I am surprised such intel wasn't kept secret. No, of course I'm not surprised, as Trump saw the chance to act big.

 

[najaB]

I can't see North Korea making a preemptive nuclear strike on America. The country would be vaporised very shortly afterwards. There is going to have to be another way to control this.

I agree that DPRK isn't likely to attack the USA but there are many in the US leadership who simply cannot stand the fact that they could do so.

Was this the same agency that knew Saddam could launch WMDs in 45 minutes?

The intelligence agencies never made those claims. The dossiers were 'sexed up' by the governments in Washington and Whitehall respectively.

 

[HSTEd]

North Korea likely wants the ability to hit the Continental US with nuclear weapons for the same reason Khruschev wanted it - nuclear weapons are really cheap compared to conventional forces.
And the crushing expenditure on conventional weapons is slowly strangling the North Korean economy.

 

[cf111]

North Korea likely wants the ability to hit the Continental US with nuclear weapons for the same reason Khruschev wanted it - nuclear weapons are really cheap compared to conventional forces.
And the crushing expenditure on conventional weapons is slowly strangling the North Korean economy.

A North Korean leadership of any description needs to spend big on the army because that is their way of controlling the country. Yes they would love workable nukes but they aren't much use if you can't subjugate the population especially now that the Kims' personality cult is at its lowest ebb. The KPA are less an invasion force and more an iron boot.

 

[HSTEd]

A North Korean leadership of any description needs to spend big on the army because that is their way of controlling the country. Yes they would love workable nukes but they aren't much use if you can't subjugate the population especially now that the Kims' personality cult is at its lowest ebb. The KPA are less an invasion force and more an iron boot.

Yes, but what happens if the cult of personality is no longer sufficient and the iron boot is not sufficient to hold down the country by itself?

Reduction in spending on conventional weapons allows them to revert to a more traditional authoritarian 'mandate from heaven' mechanism.

Nothing placates people like washing machines and nylon stockings. [An oversimplification but you get the idea]

 

[jon0844]

Yes, but what happens if the cult of personality is no longer sufficient and the iron boot is not sufficient to hold down the country by itself?

Reduction in spending on conventional weapons allows them to revert to a more traditional authoritarian 'mandate from heaven' mechanism.

Nothing placates people like washing machines and nylon stockings. [An oversimplification but you get the idea]

Are you talking about Donald Trump or Kim Jong-un?

 

[cjmillsnun]

Substitute he for she, there's still time for Sarah Palin to get a future Republican presidential nomination :eek:

She is 10x more intelligent than trump. That said an amoeba is 20x more intelligent than she is...

 

[PeterC]

I pray that I am wrong but I am getting the impression that Trump has found the nuclear weapons in his toybox and just wants to play with them.

 

[jon0844]

I pray that I am wrong but I am getting the impression that Trump has found the nuclear weapons in his toybox and just wants to play with them.

Didn't he say something along the lines of why have them if you don't use them?

However, I don't think he'd ever actually do that. He just wants to seem big, but today hasn't gone so well for him.

 

[baz962]

The best solution is to engineer a coup to get rid of Jong-Un or assassinate him.

Where are the CIA with their "exploding cigars" when you need them

Below him I'm sue there are more sensible potential leaders.

Why not get China to occupy the place as an interim measure after Jong-Un is gone ?

Thing is I often wondered why they go to war instead of assassinate like saddam etc but they never do mind you they are naff at it they tried to kill fidel castro many many times

 

[BestWestern]

A North Korean leadership of any description needs to spend big on the army because that is their way of controlling the country. Yes they would love workable nukes but they aren't much use if you can't subjugate the population especially now that the Kims' personality cult is at its lowest ebb. The KPA are less an invasion force and more an iron boot.

Has there ever been a reliable assessment of NK's ability to actually deploy it's army in a war situation? Do they have weapons, ammunution, food, supplies and mobility - or is it just a massive collection of empty-handed, inexperienced conscripts? Presumably the practical possibility of them venturing out of their home territory to fight or invade is nil?