Cross City
Member
Labour still need a swing of something like 12 percentage points just to get a majority of 1.
About half of what we saw in the locals in many places then.
Starmer's prouncing around like he's already won.
No he isn't.
Labour still need a swing of something like 12 percentage points just to get a majority of 1.
Starmer's prouncing around like he's already won.
Like any party leader before an election he has to talk about what they'll do when they win. It's all about projecting an image of a confident, competent party that's ready to get to work from day one.Starmer's prouncing around like he's already won.
He got the job because he came second in a leadership contest to someone who was outlasted by a lettuce.Though how Sunak even got the top job is still something that baffles me.
I can't see the leaders agreeing to be tucked away on a "minor" channel. It will be BBC1 and/or ITV1, probably later in the evening than usual so the (darned) football gets shown!Don't see why not. BBC have BBC1, BBC2, BBC3, BBC4 and their news channel. ITV have ITV1, ITV2, ITV3 and ITV4. Maybe best, though, if the leaders' debates aren't scheduled for prime time on the evening of Tuesday 25th June 2024.
Become fairly regional tooThe strength of third parties is very important, as you can see Labour won a majority in 2005 with 35% of the vote because the Lib Dems were a strong third on 22%. Conversely they won 40% of the vote in 2017 and still didn't win a majority.
Northern Ireland has 18 seats. Sinn Fein MPs elected have in the past not taken up their seats.Could easily be 90-150 seats with smaller parties, say 30 Northern Ireland
Scotland has 57 MPs in total.20-45 SNP
I honestly can't see any outcome other than Sunak remaining as PM come the early hours of July 5th. Starmer just doesn't do anything for me. Remember that Labour were tipped to win the 1992 election, which they lost. I think we could be seeing another 1992 where Labour were leading in the polls for so long only to lose on the day. I've already staked £5 on a surprise Tory win.
Reform UK founder and honorary president Nigel Farage has announced he will not stand in the general election.
There was speculation he would be unveiled as a candidate by Reform leader Richard Tice this morning.
He had previously said he would not make an eighth attempt to become an MP at Westminster under the current first-past-the-post electoral system.
In a statement posted on X, the GB News presenter said he would "do my bit to help" the party in the campaign.
"But now is not the right time for me to go any further than that," he added.
Reform insists it is targeting both Conservative and Labour voters, but evidence from recent by-elections suggests the Tories have the most to fear from the party, which Mr Farage led from 2019 to 2021 when it was known as the Brexit Party.
The latest opinion polls put it at around 11% of the national vote, ahead of the Liberal Democrats, and Reform says it will have enough candidates to contest every seat.
In the last general election in 2019, the party did not stand in constituencies won by Conservatives in 2017.
The party currently has one MP, Lee Anderson, who defected from the Tories in March.
Mr Farage has made it clear he plans to help his friend, Donald Trump, return to the White House in his presidential election campaign in November.
In his statement, external, Mr Farage said he had "thought long and hard as to whether I should stand in the upcoming general election".
"As honorary president of Reform UK, I am fully supportive of Richard Tice's leadership and urge voters to put their trust in him and Lee Anderson.
"I will do my bit to help in the campaign, but it is not the right time for me to go any further than that.
"Important though the general election is, the contest in the United States of America on November 5 has huge global significance.
"A strong America as a close ally is vital for our peace and security. I intend to help with the grassroots campaign in the USA in any way that I can.
"The choice between Labour and the Conservatives is uninspiring, and only Reform have the radical agenda that is needed to end decline in this country."
Tice 'delighted'
Reform has been particularly critical of the Conservatives on the issues of immigration and net zero.
Many Tories fear it could put a significant dent in Rishi Sunak's hopes of a return to Downing Street.
But they are likely to be relieved Mr Farage has decided against taking on a more prominent role, given his high public profile.
Responding to Mr Farage's announcement on X, external, Mr Tice said: "Delighted to have Nigel's help during the election campaign.
"If you want change, you must vote for Reform UK on July 4th."
Depends on where you are. Outer suburbs beyond the train lines lack decent bus services. Many routes you're waiting over 30 minutes for a bus. Most finish at 9PM. Trains the frequency is 20-40 minutes in off peak and at night.It's not really my place to comment on Australian politics but I do envy the public transport systems of the Sydney and Melbourne areas, from what I know of them.
The SNP don’t stand a chance of winning anywhere near 57 seats.Scotland has 57 MPs in total.
There might be some merit in the argument that the polls narrowed in '92, but this time you have the unknown quantity of Reform and how many Tory voters have got so fed up with Sunak they will vote Reform and split the Tory vote. If reform didn't exist the current polls would be much closer, maybe even hung parliament territory.I honestly can't see any outcome other than Sunak remaining as PM come the early hours of July 5th. Starmer just doesn't do anything for me. Remember that Labour were tipped to win the 1992 election, which they lost. I think we could be seeing another 1992 where Labour were leading in the polls for so long only to lose on the day. I've already staked £5 on a surprise Tory win.
That describes the situation in most of our second-tier cities and town.Depends on where you are. Outer suburbs beyond the train lines lack decent bus services. Many routes you're waiting over 30 minutes for a bus. Most finish at 9PM. Trains the frequency is 20-40 minutes in off peak and at night.
I honestly can't see any outcome other than Sunak remaining as PM come the early hours of July 5th. Starmer just doesn't do anything for me. Remember that Labour were tipped to win the 1992 election, which they lost. I think we could be seeing another 1992 where Labour were leading in the polls for so long only to lose on the day. I've already staked £5 on a surprise Tory win.
Depends on where you are. Outer suburbs beyond the train lines lack decent bus services. Many routes you're waiting over 30 minutes for a bus. Most finish at 9PM. Trains the frequency is 20-40 minutes in off peak and at night.
Apparently doing the announcement outside No 10 allows him to be partisan, while inside No 10 he is more constrained in what he can say.I don't understand why he didn't use the press briefing room to avoid standing in the pouring rain. Also I didn't realize he was allowed to use the announcement to make a party political broadcast.
not sure how that works given that everything from the lectern to the backdrop is public property. He could have kept his speech short and factual and left the partisan attacks for his later speech at the excel.Apparently doing the announcement outside No 10 allows him to be partisan, while inside No 10 he is more constrained in what he can say.
Exactly.He could have kept his speech short and factual and left the partisan attacks for his later speech at the excel.
That level of arrogance won't sit well with some of his own party or voters. Never mind others who either have access to grind or simply want a fair chance for their own parties or candidatesLabour still need a swing of something like 12 percentage points just to get a majority of 1. Starmer's prouncing around like he's already won.
What are you talking about?That level of arrogance won't sit well with some of his own party or voters. Never mind others who either have access to grind or simply want a fair chance for their own parties or candidates
I honestly can't see any outcome other than Sunak remaining as PM come the early hours of July 5th. Starmer just doesn't do anything for me. Remember that Labour were tipped to win the 1992 election, which they lost. I think we could be seeing another 1992 where Labour were leading in the polls for so long only to lose on the day. I've already staked £5 on a surprise Tory win.
Quick question:
Granddaughter just turned 18. She has registered to vote.
Unfortunately she will be on holiday on 4th July.
Is it still time to register for a postal vote?
Thank you.
Alternatively, if she knows someone who lives in her constituency to whom she'd be happy to entrust her vote, she could apply to vote by proxy: https://www.gov.uk/how-to-vote/voting-by-proxyYes
5pm 11 days before poll is the deadline.
So reform are standing candidates in 630 out of 650 seats (assuming missing Northern Ireland). Based on recent bi elections this should split the Tory vote.
I honestly can't see any outcome other than Sunak remaining as PM come the early hours of July 5th. Starmer just doesn't do anything for me. Remember that Labour were tipped to win the 1992 election, which they lost. I think we could be seeing another 1992 where Labour were leading in the polls for so long only to lose on the day. I've already staked £5 on a surprise Tory win.
Really? I didn't get that impression from him earlier.Labour still need a swing of something like 12 percentage points just to get a majority of 1. Starmer's prouncing around like he's already won.
Labour still need a swing of something like 12 percentage points just to get a majority of 1. Starmer's prouncing around like he's already won.
It will be interesting to see how much that affects people voting for Reform.Reform UK founder and honorary president Nigel Farage has announced he will not stand in the general election.