UK General Election 2024

[Cross City]

Labour still need a swing of something like 12 percentage points just to get a majority of 1.

About half of what we saw in the locals in many places then.

Starmer's prouncing around like he's already won.

No he isn't.

 

[najaB]

Starmer's prouncing around like he's already won.

Like any party leader before an election he has to talk about what they'll do when they win. It's all about projecting an image of a confident, competent party that's ready to get to work from day one.

 

[DanNCL]

Though how Sunak even got the top job is still something that baffles me.

He got the job because he came second in a leadership contest to someone who was outlasted by a lettuce.

 

[Howardh]

Don't see why not. BBC have BBC1, BBC2, BBC3, BBC4 and their news channel. ITV have ITV1, ITV2, ITV3 and ITV4. Maybe best, though, if the leaders' debates aren't scheduled for prime time on the evening of Tuesday 25th June 2024.

I can't see the leaders agreeing to be tucked away on a "minor" channel. It will be BBC1 and/or ITV1, probably later in the evening than usual so the (darned) football gets shown!

 

[Snow1964]

The strength of third parties is very important, as you can see Labour won a majority in 2005 with 35% of the vote because the Lib Dems were a strong third on 22%. Conversely they won 40% of the vote in 2017 and still didn't win a majority.

Become fairly regional too

Lot of Scotland is Labour-SNP battle
Lot of SW, South, home counties is LibDem-Conservative battle
Lot of West Midlands is a Conservative-Labour battle
Some of more affluent areas in North eg Cheshire are Conservatives to lose.
Some coastal areas of England could see lots of Conservative votes go to Reform, but doesn't mean Labour can win those seats

So got to be fairly careful about using national average share of votes.

Could easily be 90-150 seats with smaller parties, say 18 Northern Ireland, 20-45 SNP, 25-50 LibDem, 2-5 Plaid, 1-3 Green etc

 

[DunsBus]

I honestly can't see any outcome other than Sunak remaining as PM come the early hours of July 5th. Starmer just doesn't do anything for me. Remember that Labour were tipped to win the 1992 election, which they lost. I think we could be seeing another 1992 where Labour were leading in the polls for so long only to lose on the day. I've already staked £5 on a surprise Tory win.

 

[Magdalia]

Could easily be 90-150 seats with smaller parties, say 30 Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland has 18 seats. Sinn Fein MPs elected have in the past not taken up their seats.

20-45 SNP

Scotland has 57 MPs in total.

 

[Darandio]

I honestly can't see any outcome other than Sunak remaining as PM come the early hours of July 5th. Starmer just doesn't do anything for me. Remember that Labour were tipped to win the 1992 election, which they lost. I think we could be seeing another 1992 where Labour were leading in the polls for so long only to lose on the day. I've already staked £5 on a surprise Tory win.

In 1992 the polls were very close. Today they are miles apart. It's completely different.

Anything can happen in the next six weeks but trying to compare the two is bonkers.

 

[telstarbox]

Not the same situation. Labour and the Tories were level in the polls six weeks before the 1992 election, now the Labour lead is 15-20% ahead. I agree that Starmer is uninspiring but a lot of people will see Labour (as a whole) as 'least worst'.

 

[YorkRailFan]

Nigel Farage has now publicly said that he will not stand in the next election as a Reform candidate or in general.

Reform UK founder and honorary president Nigel Farage has announced he will not stand in the general election.

There was speculation he would be unveiled as a candidate by Reform leader Richard Tice this morning.

He had previously said he would not make an eighth attempt to become an MP at Westminster under the current first-past-the-post electoral system.

In a statement posted on X, the GB News presenter said he would "do my bit to help" the party in the campaign.

"But now is not the right time for me to go any further than that," he added.

Reform insists it is targeting both Conservative and Labour voters, but evidence from recent by-elections suggests the Tories have the most to fear from the party, which Mr Farage led from 2019 to 2021 when it was known as the Brexit Party.
The latest opinion polls put it at around 11% of the national vote, ahead of the Liberal Democrats, and Reform says it will have enough candidates to contest every seat.
In the last general election in 2019, the party did not stand in constituencies won by Conservatives in 2017.
The party currently has one MP, Lee Anderson, who defected from the Tories in March.
Mr Farage has made it clear he plans to help his friend, Donald Trump, return to the White House in his presidential election campaign in November.
In his statement, external, Mr Farage said he had "thought long and hard as to whether I should stand in the upcoming general election".
"As honorary president of Reform UK, I am fully supportive of Richard Tice's leadership and urge voters to put their trust in him and Lee Anderson.
"I will do my bit to help in the campaign, but it is not the right time for me to go any further than that.
"Important though the general election is, the contest in the United States of America on November 5 has huge global significance.
"A strong America as a close ally is vital for our peace and security. I intend to help with the grassroots campaign in the USA in any way that I can.
"The choice between Labour and the Conservatives is uninspiring, and only Reform have the radical agenda that is needed to end decline in this country."

Tice 'delighted'​

Reform has been particularly critical of the Conservatives on the issues of immigration and net zero.
Many Tories fear it could put a significant dent in Rishi Sunak's hopes of a return to Downing Street.
But they are likely to be relieved Mr Farage has decided against taking on a more prominent role, given his high public profile.
Responding to Mr Farage's announcement on X, external, Mr Tice said: "Delighted to have Nigel's help during the election campaign.
"If you want change, you must vote for Reform UK on July 4th."

Nigel Farage rules out standing for Reform UK in general election

Reform leader Richard Tice says his party will contest 630 of the 650 seats up for grabs on 4 July.

www.bbc.co.uk

The Tories will be breathing a sigh of relief.

 

[Pakenhamtrain]

It's not really my place to comment on Australian politics but I do envy the public transport systems of the Sydney and Melbourne areas, from what I know of them.

Depends on where you are. Outer suburbs beyond the train lines lack decent bus services. Many routes you're waiting over 30 minutes for a bus. Most finish at 9PM. Trains the frequency is 20-40 minutes in off peak and at night.

 

[DanNCL]

Scotland has 57 MPs in total.

The SNP don’t stand a chance of winning anywhere near 57 seats.

 

[Howardh]

I honestly can't see any outcome other than Sunak remaining as PM come the early hours of July 5th. Starmer just doesn't do anything for me. Remember that Labour were tipped to win the 1992 election, which they lost. I think we could be seeing another 1992 where Labour were leading in the polls for so long only to lose on the day. I've already staked £5 on a surprise Tory win.

There might be some merit in the argument that the polls narrowed in '92, but this time you have the unknown quantity of Reform and how many Tory voters have got so fed up with Sunak they will vote Reform and split the Tory vote. If reform didn't exist the current polls would be much closer, maybe even hung parliament territory.

 

[najaB]

Depends on where you are. Outer suburbs beyond the train lines lack decent bus services. Many routes you're waiting over 30 minutes for a bus. Most finish at 9PM. Trains the frequency is 20-40 minutes in off peak and at night.

That describes the situation in most of our second-tier cities and town.

 

[nw1]

I honestly can't see any outcome other than Sunak remaining as PM come the early hours of July 5th. Starmer just doesn't do anything for me. Remember that Labour were tipped to win the 1992 election, which they lost. I think we could be seeing another 1992 where Labour were leading in the polls for so long only to lose on the day. I've already staked £5 on a surprise Tory win.

You are joking, right?

Several reasons why:

a) Major was fairly popular in 1991/92 before the election. He was seen as a moderate figure, different from the excesses of Thatcher, and offered a moderate and middle of the road version of Conservatism. Other leading Tory figures of the time, such as Heseltine and Clarke, offered the same moderate Tory vision. Sunak is not popular and he is not moderate.
b) The opinion polls were consistently very much closer in 1991/92 than now. Indeed, at times, the Tories were ahead.
c) Sunak isn't really offering any meaningful reasons to vote for him other than "stopping the boats", and I'm not sure he can even claim success on that. I suspect the only people who will vote for him are those who adopt a hardline stance on immigration - and even then, some might prefer Reform as they see them as more effective on this issue. Plus, of course, the "anti-woke" brigade.
d) Sunak does not appeal to the red wall in the same way that Boris, for example, does. And their main red wall mouthpiece, Lee Anderson, has defected to Reform.
e) Just because Starmer "does nothing" for you, that doesn't mean the same is true of everyone. Plus, a lot of people aren't keen on Starmer, but they like Sunak even less.

I really can't understand why you would believe this when all the evidence suggests otherwise. I wonder whether it's because that's your personal preferred outcome, in the same way that many of us were hoping that Corbyn rather than Boris would win in 2019, and might have said "I think Corbyn will win" when what they actually meant was "I hope Corbyn will win, but I think, sadly, Boris will actually win".

There could be a hung parliament, I will admit that. But if there is, I still think it's a practical certainty that Labour will have more seats than the Tories.

Depends on where you are. Outer suburbs beyond the train lines lack decent bus services. Many routes you're waiting over 30 minutes for a bus. Most finish at 9PM. Trains the frequency is 20-40 minutes in off peak and at night.

Fair enough, to be fair comments were mostly regarding the fares which seem much cheaper than here.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I don't understand why he didn't use the press briefing room to avoid standing in the pouring rain. Also I didn't realize he was allowed to use the announcement to make a party political broadcast.

Apparently doing the announcement outside No 10 allows him to be partisan, while inside No 10 he is more constrained in what he can say.

 

[sor]

Apparently doing the announcement outside No 10 allows him to be partisan, while inside No 10 he is more constrained in what he can say.

not sure how that works given that everything from the lectern to the backdrop is public property. He could have kept his speech short and factual and left the partisan attacks for his later speech at the excel.

 

[najaB]

He could have kept his speech short and factual and left the partisan attacks for his later speech at the excel.

Exactly.

 

[Class 317]

So reform are standing candidates in 630 out of 650 seats (assuming missing Northern Ireland). Based on recent bi elections this should split the Tory vote.

 

[Blindtraveler]

Labour still need a swing of something like 12 percentage points just to get a majority of 1. Starmer's prouncing around like he's already won.

That level of arrogance won't sit well with some of his own party or voters. Never mind others who either have access to grind or simply want a fair chance for their own parties or candidates

 

[Thirteen]

I think Labour will win and the Mayoral and local elections give them confidence.

 

[telstarbox]

That level of arrogance won't sit well with some of his own party or voters. Never mind others who either have access to grind or simply want a fair chance for their own parties or candidates

What are you talking about?

 

[Horizon22]

I honestly can't see any outcome other than Sunak remaining as PM come the early hours of July 5th. Starmer just doesn't do anything for me. Remember that Labour were tipped to win the 1992 election, which they lost. I think we could be seeing another 1992 where Labour were leading in the polls for so long only to lose on the day. I've already staked £5 on a surprise Tory win.

I'd happily counter your £5 bet! This is more like '97, not '92.

 

[AY1975]

Quick question:
Granddaughter just turned 18. She has registered to vote.
Unfortunately she will be on holiday on 4th July.
Is it still time to register for a postal vote?
Thank you.

Yes

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65f8659eefbfe40011e4dc4d/PO-E_PostalEngland2023_form_2024.pdf

5pm 11 days before poll is the deadline.

Alternatively, if she knows someone who lives in her constituency to whom she'd be happy to entrust her vote, she could apply to vote by proxy: https://www.gov.uk/how-to-vote/voting-by-proxy

Your proxy doesn't have to be someone who supports the same party as you, as long as they're happy to cast your vote in accordance with your wishes.

 

[Gloster]

So reform are standing candidates in 630 out of 650 seats (assuming missing Northern Ireland). Based on recent bi elections this should split the Tory vote.

Reform have an electoral pact in Northern Ireland with Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV).

If they are contesting 630 seats, there are 18 in Northern Ireland and Reform are presumably following convention by not contesting the Speaker’s seat, which is the one they are not bothering with?

 

[12LDA28C]

I honestly can't see any outcome other than Sunak remaining as PM come the early hours of July 5th. Starmer just doesn't do anything for me. Remember that Labour were tipped to win the 1992 election, which they lost. I think we could be seeing another 1992 where Labour were leading in the polls for so long only to lose on the day. I've already staked £5 on a surprise Tory win.

You're in a very small minority if you're predicting Sunak stays PM after July 4th. That's why, as you rightly point out, a Tory win would be considered by most as a surprise. I fear you won't be seeing your fiver again.

 

[LowLevel]

I find the local voting angle interesting. In 2010, believe it or not, I actually voted Conservative - the area I grew up in had been blessed with a truly superb Conservative local constituency MP for 40 years in the form of Sir Patrick Cormack (widely respected by I think all sides of the political spectrum, well known for being a thorn in the side of Thatcher and so on - coincidentally he passed away earlier this year). I was also fed up of Gordon Brown.

How do we think Gavin Williamson turned out by comparison - lesson learned there

I don't live in the area any more and having had a totally uninspiring local Conservative MP there's no such angle to consider this time - I'd not vote Tory again in a million years.

 

[birchesgreen]

Labour still need a swing of something like 12 percentage points just to get a majority of 1. Starmer's prouncing around like he's already won.

Really? I didn't get that impression from him earlier.

 

[railfan99]

Labour still need a swing of something like 12 percentage points just to get a majority of 1. Starmer's prouncing around like he's already won.

While 12 per cent is a significant margin, it may be simpler to obtain a majority under your first past the post voting method than under preferential voting as used in some other nations.

Didn't many 'red constituencies have significant swings to Tories previously in the north of England? That suggests they could swing back again to their historic roots, a Labour MP.

Given you have voluntary voting, Labour has to convince good numbers of its supporters to turn up (or lodge a vote through other permitted means such as postal) but it's less complicated than having to horse trade with other parties, or Indpendents, for preferences.

 

[JamesT]

Nigel Farage rules out standing for Reform UK in general election

Reform leader Richard Tice says his party will contest 630 of the 650 seats up for grabs on 4 July.

www.bbc.co.uk

Reform UK founder and honorary president Nigel Farage has announced he will not stand in the general election.

It will be interesting to see how much that affects people voting for Reform.