West Midlands Franchise ITT released by DfT

[iainbhx]

The difference is the 350/1s are used on routes which a lot of people spend a considerable amount of time on and LM directly compete with Virgin and XC on some flows.

I'd still rather a 350/1, battered seats notwithstanding turned up on my daily Birmingham-Crewe trips than the usual 350/2.

 

[hwl]

At last, the voice of reason has spoken! Unlike the winds of insanity that have blown over this thread this morning ....

I did predict on the page before on Sunday that I expected the delay too but that doesn't make for a fun discussion :

http://www.railforums.co.uk/showpost.php?p=3056851&postcount=161

Also worth noting that Anglia got delayed a year ago an this has helped put pressure on everything since and into the future. There are limited numbers of staff at DfT, NR, bidders and the consultants and lawyers used by DfT and bidders so delays on franchising are interlinks as the timetable and resources are tight.

Also worth looking back at the West Coast screw up 5 years ago and the effects that had on other re-franchising exercises including the mass extensions and re-extensions we still have.

 

[HH]

I did predict on the page before on Sunday that I expected the delay too but that doesn't make for a fun discussion :

http://www.railforums.co.uk/showpost.php?p=3056851&postcount=161

Also worth noting that Anglia got delayed a year ago an this has helped put pressure on everything since and into the future. There are limited numbers of staff at DfT, NR, bidders and the consultants and lawyers used by DfT and bidders so delays on franchising are interlinks as the timetable and resources are tight.

Also worth looking back at the West Coast screw up 5 years ago and the effects that had on other re-franchising exercises including the mass extensions and re-extensions we still have.

You're over-thinking this. The reason that SWF was delayed has nothing to do with the delay on Anglia and absolutely nothing to do with the delay on West Coast.

DfT has different teams on each franchise and is employing different consultants. However, DfT struggles to deliver anything on time, particularly if it's due to happen in the Summer...

 

[Blindtraveler]

My money still on Govia holding onto it. They have IMO done alright with it and other than the industrial issues a few years back I'm aware of no real hickups, glad to be corrected!

 

[plcd1]

My money still on Govia holding onto it. They have IMO done alright with it and other than the industrial issues a few years back I'm aware of no real hickups, glad to be corrected!

I don't use LM very much but have done some longish trips in the past. I've generally found them reasonably competent provided the WCML infrastructure wasn't falling over. Don't know about West Midlands commuter lines or their more rural stretches but they seem to do OK to me.

Cue howls of outrage from regular users.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Cue howls of outrage from regular users.

No, I think they do a reasonable job and a few upcoming changes (8 car Trent Valley service, for example) will solve some of the problems.

They had a VERY bad start, but what TOC hasn't?

 

[HLE]

The main reason for their poor start was a rather reluctant driver management policy whereby trainees weren't taken on because they 'wouldn't be required'.

How they expected qualifieds to join, especially when the other TOCS up this way are XC, Virgin and Chiltern, still baffles me.

 

[HH]

My money still on Govia holding onto it. They have IMO done alright with it and other than the industrial issues a few years back I'm aware of no real hickups, glad to be corrected!

Past performance is no guarantee of future franchise.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Past performance is no guarantee of future franchise.

Given the costs of an unnecessary changeover, I've always wondered why a renewal shouldn't be the default if the cost is reasonable and the record is good.

 

[pemma]

Given the costs of an unnecessary changeover, I've always wondered why a renewal shouldn't be the default if the cost is reasonable and the record is good.

Maybe bidders should have to produce a 28 year plan and then add break clauses with reviews every 7 years in case either party wants to pull out or a change to the terms is required e.g. unexpected passenger growth?

Although, if that happened I wouldn't be surprised if some franchises were sold e.g. there's nothing to stop Govia selling London & Birmingham Railway Ltd to someone else as long as that someone else is willing to continue running the franchise on the agreed terms or face the consequences of pulling out of the franchise.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Maybe bidders should have to produce a 28 year plan and then add break clauses with reviews every 7 years in case either party wants to pull out or a change to the terms is required e.g. unexpected passenger growth?

That's not a terrible idea. You could let a franchise on the basis of it continuing indefinitely provided targets are met (which obviously would be redefined periodically), and with occasional "can someone else do better value" competitions of some kind.

Although, if that happened I wouldn't be surprised if some franchises were sold e.g. there's nothing to stop Govia selling London & Birmingham Railway Ltd to someone else as long as that someone else is willing to continue running the franchise on the agreed terms or face the consequences of pulling out of the franchise.

That's already happened with longer franchises. When Virgin Trains was first let it was 100% VRG, and Stagey soon bought a 49% stake. And Chiltern was Laing Group and has been sold to Arriva.

 

[gimmea50anyday]

Virgin has always sold a non-controlling stakenof all its companies to partner firms. It's how beardyman keeps his company safe from any fallouts in his markets or crashes. Virgin Atlantic for example is 49% Singapore airlines, virgin trains 49% stagecoach etc almostvhalving his side of the business costs

 

[47802]

Virgin has always sold a non-controlling stakenof all its companies to partner firms. It's how beardyman keeps his company safe from any fallouts in his markets or crashes. Virgin Atlantic for example is 49% Singapore airlines, virgin trains 49% stagecoach etc almostvhalving his side of the business costs

Virgin Atlantic is 49% Delta now actually and Virgin now intend to sell a portion of its 51% to KLM/Air France, and off course VTEC is only 10% Virgin.

 

[KashmireHawker]

DfT Rail Franchise Schedule suggests an announcement this month; I blumin hope so!

 

[nesw]

Quite probably this week but with DfT anything is possible.

 

[pemma]

Rumour is a new order of 195s is set to be confirmed this week.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Rumour is a new order of 195s is set to be confirmed this week.

More effing DMUs?

Should be bi-modes.

 

[LowLevel]

If they'd like to order a shed load and send the 170s east we would quite happily have them back

 

[hwl]

Rumour is a new order of 195s is set to be confirmed this week.

How much replacement as opposed to extra units for lenghtening /extra services?

 

[DarloRich]

At last, the voice of reason has spoken! Unlike the winds of insanity that have blown over this thread this morning ....

one of the reasons i have stayed out of this thread!

No, I think they do a reasonable job and a few upcoming changes (8 car Trent Valley service, for example) will solve some of the problems.

They had a VERY bad start, but what TOC hasn't?

As a regular user i think they do a decent job but do need to improve:

• Comms on disruption
• better disruption relief/alternative timetable plans
• higher Marston Vale reliability

 

[Bletchleyite]

[*]higher Marston Vale reliability

The problem with this is the isolated operation using ageing units and lack of enough units to keep a hot spare at Bletchley all the time.

The real solution would be electrification (meaning you could use a 350 or 319 of which there are plenty), but failing that an extra unit would solve the problem.

[*]better disruption relief/alternative timetable plans

Don't know about this, I though the Euston contingency timetable (can one Manchester, one Brum and the Tring stoppers) was very well rehearsed. Other than that the deliberate approach seems to be "operate everything but late if needs be and sort between the peaks" which for a primarily commuter service I think makes a lot of sense. Cancelling and skip-stopping cause a lot more problems with e.g. serious overcrowding.

 

[TheDavibob]

More effing DMUs?

Should be bi-modes.

I'm slightly confused with a pure DMU order. They have a decent chunk of modern DMUs anyway - surely a target would be elimination of diesel traction from New Street, in which case Bimodes operating to Hereford and Shrewsbury (on largely electrified lines) which, coupled with Chase Line electrification, would allow a pretty substantial Class 170 cascade to displace and reinforce the majority of the Sprinter fleet, no new DMUs needed.

 

[ChrisHogan]

I'm slightly confused with a pure DMU order. They have a decent chunk of modern DMUs anyway - surely a target would be elimination of diesel traction from New Street, in which case Bimodes operating to Hereford and Shrewsbury (on largely electrified lines) which, coupled with Chase Line electrification, would allow a pretty substantial Class 170 cascade to displace and reinforce the majority of the Sprinter fleet, no new DMUs needed.

The Hereford line is only electrified to King's Norton and the Shrewsbury line only to Oxley. The new franchise will need about 40 extra diagrammed vehicles for Snow Hill, Hereford and Shrewsbury lines plus the unit for Kenilworth, plus replacements for the three 150s (that I assume are still going to Northern) and I imagine replacements for the 153s. The Rugeley electrification releases only a handful of diesels (9 diagrammed vehicles?) and Bromsgrove electrification nothing.

Don't condemn us to another ten years of a "no growth" franchise.

 

[The Ham]

If they'd like to order a shed load and send the 170s east we would quite happily have them back

Given that there's something like 120 DMU coaches over the whole London Midland franchise, I wouldn't be surprised if it were to be a total replacement of three existing fleet. This is just because anything less than that write be a fairly small order.

If nothing else it would result in a uniform fleet which would result in lower maintenance and training costs. It works also make working out which units can run where easier as it would just be down to the length of the units esteemed than length and type, especially when run in pairs.

 

[ChrisHogan]

Given that there's something like 120 DMU coaches over the whole London Midland franchise, I wouldn't be surprised if it were to be a total replacement of three existing fleet. This is just because anything less than that write be a fairly small order.

If nothing else it would result in a uniform fleet which would result in lower maintenance and training costs. It works also make working out which units can run where easier as it would just be down to the length of the units esteemed than length and type, especially when run in pairs.

65 vehicles (assuming growth, and 150 and 153 replacement) isn't a "fairly small order". The 195s could easily be concentrated on one or two routes in the same way that the 172s are concentrated on Snow Hill.

 

[dgl]

and given that CAF are building a manufacturing plant in wales and that they are one of only 2 confirmed manufacturers of UK spec non-intercity DMU's would be the sensible option (well STADLER bi-modes would probably be better but UK made probably has a political advantage and the CAF units are probably cheaper).

Would also mean there are some more sprinters available for cascading which would help with overcrowding in other areas and possibly with the current cascade problems at GWR.

 

[CosherB]

and given that CAF are building a manufacturing plant in wales and that they are one of only 2 confirmed manufacturers of UK spec non-intercity DMU's would be the sensible option (well STADLER bi-modes would probably be better but UK made probably has a political advantage and the CAF units are probably cheaper).

Would also mean there are some more sprinters available for cascading which would help with overcrowding in other areas and possibly with the current cascade problems at GWR.

As (hopefully) the long term future is not DMUs, although current government thinking is having an effect on that, a single large fleet of 195s makes engineering sense at least. Not a great basis to procure rolling stock, but you can tell I'm an engineer! No doubt, however, we'll go down the route of ordering completely incompatible micro-fleets that will cause cascade problems in the future.

And, of course, this may further complicate future orders of 319 Flex, 455 Flex and 230s!

 

[YorkshireBear]

We need more DMUs with electrification in its current state so I would not be surprised. LM to become a 172 and 195 only DMU franchise. Plenty to release to other operators especially wales, FGW etc who are going to need DMUs. EMT as well.

 

[tombowell]

Any rumours on who's won it?

 

[Bletchleyite]

We need more DMUs with electrification in its current state so I would not be surprised. LM to become a 172 and 195 only DMU franchise. Plenty to release to other operators especially wales, FGW etc who are going to need DMUs. EMT as well.

Marston Vale platform extensions, then? Or SDO I suppose, but isn't there a station where 2x23m would overhang a level crossing?