What will a No to independence vote mean for the SNP?

[90sWereBetter]

I've been wondering, what will a no vote for Scottish independence in September mean for the SNP and Alex Salmond? Will they try again for independence in about a decade's time (assuming they stay in power at Holyrood)? Will Salmond resign if the No vote is victorious?

 

[SS4]

Purely in my opinion I think the SNP will stay in power and push for more devolved powers.

 

[Simon11]

If they do say yes, in a few decades, I would be rather amused if they requested to rejoin after all their energy supplies deplete!

 

[MidnightFlyer]

A more pressing question for me is where does it leave Scotland socially - the Yes / No campaign could divide ordinary people (and subgroups within) for years to come - the likes of cars are being vandalised for showing pro-Union merchandise (and I'm sure there'll have been some vice versa too) - how do you end that divide, or in some cases pure contempt for either side which has been escalated by the campaign?

 

[tbtc]

The "no" vote in the late '70s (in the Devolution referendum) meant a twenty year wait for another vote (in the late '90s) - basically a generation later.

Similarly, I'd guess that the "no" vote in the AV referendum a couple of years ago has basically ruined any scope for electoral reform (at Westminster elections) for a generation.

The vote on EEC membership in the '70s meant that there was no appetite for another vote on Europe any time soon, as far as the majority of the population were concerned.

(I say all this without getting into any debate about whether any of these results were good or bad - there are more than enough arguments about the rights and wrongs of Scottish Independence/ the EU etc on the Internet - no need for another here)

So, if Scotland votes "No" later this year, then I think it'd be hard to find enthusiasm for another vote any time soon. But I suppose that this depends on the closeness of the vote. If there's a 51% "No" vote in a few months time then I could see some pro-Independence people encouraged to try to get another vote (though obviously if 51% of people vote "Yes" there'll be no chance of a referendum on "Should Scotland rejoin the UK").

TBH, I'd say that if I were in Salmond's position I'd make sure that I could be certain of the answer that the people would give before I asked the question. Asking and being rebuffed will hurt the SNP's cause. However, Salmond is obviously a lot cannier than Clegg (who rushed into the AV referendum without building any case/momentum for reform) - I'm wondering whether he's timed this quite nicely to give himself the best chance - years of SNP administration at Holyrood, ensuring that he's called a vote whilst the unpopular (to most Scots) Cameron/Osbourne Government are in Westminster (i.e. more of a "them and us" than if Labour get in in 2015). Like Boris Johnson, he knows what he's doing (and knows that sometimes it helps if you give people the impression that you don't, so that they underestimate you).

 

[deltic]

the SNP cant loose - either they win independence with a yes vote or they get a huge amount of additional powers if its a no vote (as promised by all the Westminster parties). So the SNP can say they have achieved far greater autonomy for Scotland than would have been dreamed off less than 20 years ago. As tbtc says Salmond is a far cannier operator than most of the Westminster elite who have come out of the Independence campaign looking second best even if the vote goes there way in the end.

 

[PaxVobiscum]

A more pressing question for me is where does it leave Scotland socially - the Yes / No campaign could divide ordinary people (and subgroups within) for years to come - the likes of cars are being vandalised for showing pro-Union merchandise (and I'm sure there'll have been some vice versa too) - how do you end that divide, or in some cases pure contempt for either side which has been escalated by the campaign?

I haven't seen any evidence of that kind of divide, but I suppose it is possible later on as the arguments heat up.

 

[HawkeyeTheNoo]

A more pressing question for me is where does it leave Scotland socially - the Yes / No campaign could divide ordinary people (and subgroups within) for years to come - the likes of cars are being vandalised for showing pro-Union merchandise ?

Seen or heard absolutely no evidence of that whatsoever! People I know no matter what side they are on are just getting on as normal with perhaps nothing more than banter going between them!

 

[DaveNewcastle]

If they do say yes, in a few decades, I would be rather amused if they requested to rejoin after all their energy supplies deplete!

Really?

I would be very surprised if the union could survive for a few decades without Scotland. Or, more to the point, very surprised if England could survive for a few decades without its own government.
(I'm continually bemused by England's indifference to its own lack of a government.)
An England without a government for the last 300 years has only managed by virtue of its 3 'partners', but could it really continue for long only governed through a partnership with Wales and NI, each with their own strong agendas? I doubt it. I'm sure that the English would want their own governement within less than a decade of Scotland leaving the union, and I'm sure the English would make it happen.

 

[yorksrob]

Really?

I would be very surprised if the union could survive for a few decades without Scotland. Or, more to the point, very surprised if England could survive for a few decades without its own government.
(I'm continually bemused by England's indifference to its own lack of a government.)
An England without a government for the last 300 years has only managed by virtue of its 3 'partners', but could it really continue for long only governed through a partnership with Wales and NI, each with their own strong agendas? I doubt it. I'm sure that the English would want their own governement within less than a decade of Scotland leaving the union, and I'm sure the English would make it happen.

To be honest, most of the "issues" (the West Lothian Question shall we say) have been caused by the political leverage that the Scots could potentially have had since devolution. The Welsh and Northern Irish don't seem to have had enough members in parliament to have created an issue. There doesn't seem to have been any issue of a Government vote swinging on them in the same way as for Scotland.

It will be interesting to see what Northern Ireland does. British, but very much linked to the Scottish part of Britain by blood, religion and inclination. Will they want to remain wedded to an English UK at all ?

 

[MidnightFlyer]

It will be interesting to see what Northern Ireland does. British, but very much linked to the Scottish part of Britain by blood, religion and inclination. Will they want to remain wedded to an English UK at all ?

It would be a brave and / or stupid person who officially ignited that debate again. I believe it will go one day, but not for a very, very, very long time. Another point to consider is whether the South would actually want it back - I'm sure I've read of polls in the past where a lot of people from the South want nothing to do with it. I dread to think how any one side would react to losing a Scotland-esque ballot though!

 

[yorksrob]

It would be a brave and / or stupid person who officially ignited that debate again. I believe it will go one day, but not for a very, very, very long time. Another point to consider is whether the South would actually want it back - I'm sure I've read of polls in the past where a lot of people from the South want nothing to do with it. I dread to think how any one side would react to losing a Scotland-esque ballot though!

I've realised that I've been pondering on what might happen in the event of a "yes to independence vote" (sorry had a few to drink !).


MattE2010, I do think that if anything was going to lead to an existentialist moment in Northern Irish Unionism, the break up of England and Scotland would be it. Maybe the Republic would be interested in investigating a federalist solution with the North, maybe not, but it's how Unionism would react to a a break between Scotland and England that is a bit of an unknown.

In the event of a "no to independence" vote, it would only lead to more devolution for Scotland and hopefully the rest of the UK (including England) as well, because it needs it, but you can never trust Whitehall !

 

[St Rollox]

Strangely enough a NO vote would get the independence monkey off the SNP leadership's back.
We tried, failed, now let's move on sort of thing.
Not unlike present day New Labour and socialism.
As far as i'm concerned what's on offer is very weak.
It almost panders to unionism with the keeping of pound, NATO and the monarchy.
Maybe why the vote might be closer than i first thought.
I wouldn't like to be the UK prime minister if the YES vote win.
David would look a right lame duck.

 

[gordonthemoron]

David Cameron would certainly go down in the history books

 

[Clip]

I wouldn't like to be the UK prime minister if the YES vote win.
David would look a right lame duck.

David Cameron would certainly go down in the history books

Of course he would but whilst it would show that he lost Scotland from the United Kingdom at least he let them have a vote on their own destiny which is the most democratic thing anyone could have done surely? To turn round and point blankly say no you cant have a vote on your own future of your country would certainly have been far worse IMO especially to the Scottish voters who already look on Westminster badly.

 

[Butts]

Seen or heard absolutely no evidence of that whatsoever! People I know no matter what side they are on are just getting on as normal with perhaps nothing more than banter going between them!

Agreed, it's hardly a hot topic of conversation amongst my work colleagues