Island Line Railway - current state and the future

[Chris125]

They would still need converting from fourth rail to third rail operation don't forget.

I was thinking structurally but your quite right - overall however the changes should be minimal compared to the 230s.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I wonder what this thread will mean to the residents of the Isle of Wight who live in Newport or on the central and western parts of the island whose railways were closed so many years ago.

 

[yorksrob]

"I'm sure a lot of visitors "

And I bet your 'alot' is actually less than 1% of the island's tourist visitors.

With a large proportion of the remainder being those who are inclined towards motor transport anyway.

Anyhow, it doesn't matter because the numbers show that the route still carries a perfectly respectable number of passengers for a local/non-London commuter route, anyway.

 

[yorksrob]

I wonder what this thread will mean to the residents of the Isle of Wight who live in Newport or on the central and western parts of the island whose railways were closed so many years ago.

Will it mean any less than the rest of the forum means to the residents of Market Weighton, Tavistock, Padstow, Richmond North Yorkshire, Hawes, Welles Next to the Sea etc....

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Will it mean any less than the rest of the forum means to the residents of Market Weighton, Tavistock, Padstow, Richmond North Yorkshire, Hawes, Welles Next to the Sea etc....

This thread is about the available rail travel in the Isle of Wight, which is separated from the mainland and can only be reached from the mainland by ferries of varying types. My mention of the main town of Newport not being currently served by rail nor other settlements in the central and western parts of the island, is therefore not off thread.

None of the examples you show above have the same separation from the mainland. Incidentally, I assume your last example shown was that of Wells next the Sea.

 

[yorksrob]

This thread is about the available rail travel in the Isle of Wight, which is separated from the mainland and can only be reached from the mainland by ferries of varying types. My mention of the main town of Newport not being currently served by rail nor other settlements in the central and western parts of the island, is therefore not off thread.

None of the examples you show above have the same separation from the mainland. Incidentally, I assume your last example shown was that of Wells next the Sea.

Yes, but they're all separated from the railway network. Someone in Newport might well feel that railway affairs are less relevant to them as they are not directly served by the railway in the same way that someone in a non-railway served town on the mainland might. The fact that the IoW is physically separated from the rest of Britain has no real bearing as some people use the IoW railway for travel within the island whilst others use it for onward travel to and from further afield. Absolutely no different from any other local railway in that respect.

 

[Rick1984]

Complete irrelevance. Are you seriously suggesting that a lack of through ticketing would put people off?

People manage to travel to the Isle of Man, Channel Islands, Sciliy Isles, Malta and a hundred and one other places without such 'through' ticketing.

50 years ago it *might* have made a difference. In this day and age with the internet providing all the information a traveller could need, it's an irrelevant piece of 'whataboutery'.

I'd be pissed off as my Rail Warrant each month would no longer cover the ferry!

 

[Chester1]

"I'm sure a lot of visitors "

And I bet your 'alot' is actually less than 1% of the island's tourist visitors.

And besides train/ferry/bus tickets should be possible. I can't find a Plus Bus ticket for IoW which there really should be.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Yes, but they're all separated from the railway network. Someone in Newport might well feel that railway affairs are less relevant to them as they are not directly served by the railway in the same way that someone in a non-railway served town on the mainland might. The fact that the IoW is physically separated from the rest of Britain has no real bearing as some people use the IoW railway for travel within the island whilst others use it for onward travel to and from further afield. Absolutely no different from any other local railway in that respect.

The difference being that Newport is the main town of the island and is not served by rail. None of the examples that you quoted in your earlier posting can be described as being main towns in their geographical areas.

 

[yorksrob]

The difference being that Newport is the main town of the island and is not served by rail. None of the examples that you quoted in your earlier posting can be described as being main towns in their geographical areas.

I think that's a fairly semantic difference to be honest. Newport is a town on the IoW, as are Shanklin, Ryde and Cowes. Some are served by rail, others sadly aren't. The point is, there are enough rail travellers between Ryde and Shanklin to justify that service.

 

[trash80]

Newport is the island's "capital" though Ryde is larger.

 

[yorksrob]

On reflection, it would have been better had BR also managed to retain the connection from Ryde to Newport. However, this was the Beeching era and doubtless they valued the through bucket and spade traffic more than local travellers. Nevertheless, we are where we are and whilst its sad that we can't reopen that route, I do not see that as a justification for not retaining the existing route.

 

[DT611]

That was over 50 years ago and doesn't mean any modern railway closure is wrong.

Well it actually does. the reason being that we know from past experience what happens once such lines ultimately close.

Busitution failed in rural areas but can work in urban areas.

Not without huge cost. Dedicated, fully segregated bus lanes (no, throwing a bit of paint down doesn't an effective bus lane make) costs big money compared to laying a rail track as road construction tends to cost more then rail construction. + you have the amount of vehicles and drivers to make it frequent and effective, added up that all costs. even then, busses don't usually tend to attract people from their cars (there are some cases where the opposite happens but seem to be rare) . Most of the high usage bus routes that do exist already had a captive usership.

The Isle of Wight will always need a decent bus service because of its population density and huge day tripper demand.

And it will hopefully continue to have it. It meets the needs of it's users. However, so does the rail line.

Busitution is much more likely to work if money is spent on busways and priority systems because

A bit more likely, but a lot less guaranteed then a light rail scheme.

a) they provide a faster and more reliable service,

then a normal bus yes. However not reliable enough unless you spend huge money on providing fully dedicated and fully segregated infrastructure.

b) they are low maintenance

That statement seems to be debatible, remember road type schemes will require a quite a cost to build and maintain, even a bus way. I wouldn't be surprised, in fact the thought seems to be that light rail is even lower maintenence again as for the most part it's a simple system.

c) if the government has invested a large amount of money on a piece of infrastructure then they have a political incentive to make sure its a success.

You think? all the government needs to do is to be able to convince who they need to convince, that the infrastructure is a success. Even if it isn't, if enough people believe otherwise then that is all that matters.

I haven't used the Gosport system, what is the local opinion of it? I like the Leigh busway and after an intial low uptake it then needed an extra service to meet demand. I would have prefered it to have been a Metrolink line but the finances did not stack up and there is not a suitable route to connect it to the rest of the system.

I haven't read much on that particular bus way, but the only reason i can see finances not "stacking up" is down to the fact there would have been a cost in trying to connect a metrolink line to the rest of the system as you stated. Other then that, what other reasons?

 

[hooverboy]

And besides train/ferry/bus tickets should be possible. I can't find a Plus Bus ticket for IoW which there really should be.

+1
it really shouldn't be that difficult to organise a wight day pass,similar to london travelcard, that is good for all public transport on the island
..even coming from further afar,you could include the price of rail /ferry travel from the mainland,just like london travelcard will allow return travel from point of entry to zones 1-6.

if they get the pricing right it could actually be a serious money spinner for the place.
£50 from the home counties for a(single) adult is really not worth it for the day...for a family of 2 adults/2 kids that's £150 for a day.
Why should I spend that much for 1 day when I could take the whole family away to spain for the entire week for the price of 2 days travel in the UK...WITH ACCOMODATION?

they need to be far more adventurous with the prices to promote "staycations"..
half that amount including hover/ferry(ie £25 day pass from london and £10-15 for the kids) from london terminus for the day and I'd consider it.

TBH they ought to consider that for the whole network.insanely cheap weekend walkabout tickets over designated regions will fill up trains that were previously running well below capacity.thay do have such things in germany..ie bavaria rail pass is about €25 and allows travel on all local and regional buses and trains(not ICE express mind).

closest thing we have to the above would be west midlands day ranger...very good deal.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

What areas on the Isle of Wight that once were served by a rail service no longer have a bus service to compensate?

 

[yorksrob]

+1
it really shouldn't be that difficult to organise a wight day pass,similar to london travelcard, that is good for all public transport on the island
..even coming from further afar,you could include the price of rail /ferry travel from the mainland,just like london travelcard will allow return travel from point of entry to zones 1-6.

Should be but isn't. If it was easy, how come they haven't managed it to places that are already off the railway network such as Padstow and Hunstanton.

TBH they ought to consider that for the whole network.insanely cheap weekend walkabout tickets over designated regions will fill up trains that were previously running well below capacity.thay do have such things in germany..ie bavaria rail pass is about €25 and allows travel on all local and regional buses and trains(not ICE express mind)

I'm sure I remember someone else did that previously - yes, it was Network SouthEast !

 

[hooverboy]

+1

Should be but isn't. If it was easy, how come they haven't managed it to places that are already off the railway network such as Padstow and Hunstanton.



I'm sure I remember someone else did that previously - yes, it was Network SouthEast !

sure,needs a bit of co-ordination between the rail operators and local transport companies,but keeps the revenue in-house does it not?

with regard to NSE offers etc,I'm not talking about something you have to book 6 months in advance,travel on the right train and wear a suitably designated hi-vis jacket to show you are an official recipient of said offer.I am talking about turn up on the day to the nearest ticket vending machine,buy and go,and have some fun with the family.

 

[A0wen]

And besides train/ferry/bus tickets should be possible. I can't find a Plus Bus ticket for IoW which there really should be.

You mean like the Ferry / Bus or Ferry / Train tickets Wightlink currently offer? http://www.wightlink.co.uk/go/tickets-prices/foot-passengers/

And Red Funnel also sell SV's day ticket to foot passengers.

 

[cav1975]

What areas on the Isle of Wight that once were served by a rail service no longer have a bus service to compensate?

Havenstreet is one example, it used to have services to Ryde and Newport, later it had a community bus linking to Binstead and Wootton for other bus connections. Now it has nothing. A victim of the council's cash shortage which removed the subsidy.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

How many years ago was the last full structural survey done on the rail pier?

 

[XDM]

We were at Portsmouth harbour yesterday afternoon. I could see storm Brian giving Ryde pier head a very profound six hour structural survey. If it survived that it should overcome a few lightweight trains rumbling over it.

 

[Chester1]

Not without huge cost. Dedicated, fully segregated bus lanes (no, throwing a bit of paint down doesn't an effective bus lane make) costs big money compared to laying a rail track as road construction tends to cost more then rail construction. + you have the amount of vehicles and drivers to make it frequent and effective, added up that all costs. even then, busses don't usually tend to attract people from their cars (there are some cases where the opposite happens but seem to be rare). Most of the high usage bus routes that do exist already had a captive usership.

What is the basis for busways costing more than rail? The Cambridge guided system cost £11.5m a mile after massive cost overruns. Leigh cost £68m for 4.5 miles of guided track and significant alterations to roads into Manchester. South East Hampshire BRT cost £25m for 2.8 miles. Assuming 4 miles around Newport + Cowes, 2 miles around Yarmouth and Freshwater and proper priority systems in Ryde, Sandown, Shanklin and Ventnor I think £70m is a reasonable budget. In terms of maintenance, costs could be subsidised by charging private bus and coaches to use the system. I think this could be very profitable during the summer months because there is a huge incentive for companies to reduce the chances of their customers being stuck in traffic. Has the cost of keeping the line open for another 30 to 40 years been estimated? An 80% subsidy is really bad especially now that the UK network as a whole now generates an opperating profit (the subsidy from the government is for infrastructure investment). Is there a single busway system in the UK that has closed or been reduced to a negligible service? I prefer light rail but the costs would be too high unless it was an add on to a Ryde-Gosport-Portsmouth tunneled tram scheme. Unless the government suddenly decides to spend £1bn or so on buying votes in Gosport and IoW that will never happen!!!

 

[tbtc]

the numbers show that the route still carries a perfectly respectable number of passengers for a local/non-London commuter route, anyway

there are enough rail travellers between Ryde and Shanklin to justify that service

Wiki (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_Line,_Isle_of_Wight) states that...

"passenger numbers ... have fallen rapidly to an estimated 1.31 million in 2014–15. This is the lowest annual estimate since 1998–99, and suggests passenger numbers have fallen by 22% in the last four years"

So, looking at RTT for the Esplanade, there's 66 services a day during the week, 66 services a day on a Saturday and 46 services a day on a Sunday.

442 services per week, so 22,984 journeys per year.

That's fifty seven passengers per journey. Enough to fill a single decker bus, with a handful standing, but certainly not enough for a single carriage 153.

Now, you can argue, as some "believers" do on here, that every single journey matters and it'd be an outrage if we closed a failed station like Breich because there are unquantifiable social benefits that always magically swing the number in favours of heavy rail continuing to serve tiny markets (even if it may look like a sledgehammer/ nut situation). Fair enough if you are in that camp - there's no point in arguing with people like that.

But do you really believe that fifty seven passengers per journey (and falling) is "perfectly respectable"? How low would it have to get until you decided that it's just not worth the hassle of an isolated non-standard bit of the SWR franchise?

Is there a threshold at which you'd finally admit it isn't worth the candle? When it gets under a million passengers a year? It's been loosing a hundred thousand passengers per year in recent times, so it's not unthinkable that it'll go under a million before long.

(and I know there's the "but if we only invested billions in upgrading it then more people would use it" argument - I've heard the Ray Liotta quote more than a couple of times - but your actual point was about the current falling passenger numbers still being "perfectly respectable" and "enough" to warrant the existing service)

 

[DT611]

The Cambridge guided system cost £11.5m a mile after massive cost overruns. Leigh cost £68m for 4.5 miles of guided track and significant alterations to roads into Manchester. South East Hampshire BRT cost £25m for 2.8 miles. Assuming 4 miles around Newport + Cowes, 2 miles around Yarmouth and Freshwater and proper priority systems in Ryde, Sandown, Shanklin and Ventnor I think £70m is a reasonable budget.

that sounds quite a big cost for a few miles. Double that and then maybe it might make some sense at that cost.

In terms of maintenance, costs could be subsidised by charging private bus and coaches to use the system.

Great, but you will have to hope those operators would be willing to pay the charges, which would have to be high enough to subsidize it, or mostly subsidize it. I suspect they wouldn't. so to get them to use it, the charges would have to be low enough to attract them, meaning the income would unlikely be enough to go anywhere near subsidizing it, unless a huge amount of operators decided to start using it. Unlikely i think.

I think this could be very profitable during the summer months because there is a huge incentive for companies to reduce the chances of their customers being stuck in traffic.

If the charge to use is very low yes. If it's high and it's ultimately cheaper (if a bit less profitable) to continue via normal roads that is what operators would probably do.

Has the cost of keeping the line open for another 30 to 40 years been estimated? An 80% subsidy is really bad especially now that the UK network as a whole now generates an opperating profit (the subsidy from the government is for infrastructure investment).

An 80% subsidy is high but the rest of the network supposibly generating an operating proffit is irrelevant to whether this line should or shouldn't stay open. for what it's worth, only some lines are generating an operating profit. there are a number of heavily subsidized lines in the uk but the costs are ultimately hidden (the DFT/network rail will have a full breakdown of costs)

Is there a single busway system in the UK that has closed or been reduced to a negligible service? I prefer light rail but the costs would be too high unless it was an add on to a Ryde-Gosport-Portsmouth tunneled tram scheme. Unless the government suddenly decides to spend £1bn or so on buying votes in Gosport and IoW that will never happen!!!

1000000000 on a light rail system would probably cover the whole island.
If you are arguing for the current line to be removed and replaced with a busway, then i think realistically you are flogging a dead horse on that one.

 

[Bletchleyite]

57 passengers per train is quite high compared with many other branch lines. I don't think the Far North Line will come close, for example. Serpell much?

 

[ChiefPlanner]

"Rail" 383 has "no plans in place for Ryde Pier Work" as an article header , the lease of which is up for renewal in 2019 , but the DfT would expect NR to make provision for routine maintenance and renewal works for CP6.

Maynard in same article also states that South Western Railway is to submit a costed option to the SoS by the end of March in relation to the future of Island Line operations. So there we are.

 

[Chester1]

Wiki (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_Line,_Isle_of_Wight) states that...

"passenger numbers ... have fallen rapidly to an estimated 1.31 million in 2014–15. This is the lowest annual estimate since 1998–99, and suggests passenger numbers have fallen by 22% in the last four years"

So, looking at RTT for the Esplanade, there's 66 services a day during the week, 66 services a day on a Saturday and 46 services a day on a Sunday.

442 services per week, so 22,984 journeys per year.

That's fifty seven passengers per journey. Enough to fill a single decker bus, with a handful standing, but certainly not enough for a single carriage 153.

Now, you can argue, as some "believers" do on here, that every single journey matters and it'd be an outrage if we closed a failed station like Breich because there are unquantifiable social benefits that always magically swing the number in favours of heavy rail continuing to serve tiny markets (even if it may look like a sledgehammer/ nut situation). Fair enough if you are in that camp - there's no point in arguing with people like that.

But do you really believe that fifty seven passengers per journey (and falling) is "perfectly respectable"? How low would it have to get until you decided that it's just not worth the hassle of an isolated non-standard bit of the SWR franchise?

Is there a threshold at which you'd finally admit it isn't worth the candle? When it gets under a million passengers a year? It's been loosing a hundred thousand passengers per year in recent times, so it's not unthinkable that it'll go under a million before long.

(and I know there's the "but if we only invested billions in upgrading it then more people would use it" argument - I've heard the Ray Liotta quote more than a couple of times - but your actual point was about the current falling passenger numbers still being "perfectly respectable" and "enough" to warrant the existing service)

Honestly id love to see some people comment on how low the average numbers of passengers per service needs to drop before they would agree to closing the line. I honestly think many members of this site would strongly argue for the line staying open if it where 10 or 20. Proper busway systems in the UK do not close therefore why would an Isle of Wight busway system close or be reduced to a useless service? Its not like we are talking about a rural line in the 1960s. For instance it seems that the SE Hampshire BRT has no risk of closure and some chance of extension. 57 per service is nearly the capacity of a double decker bus when most of the bottom deck is luggage, wheel chair and pram space.

It is not like the line would have to disappear because a long lease could be gifted to the IWSR for Ryde St Johns to Shanklin so that the line does not completely close. Potentially the remaining section could be a single track heritage line until the 1938 stock or the pier cannot be used at all. If they were restored to their original appearence it could be a good tourist attraction and the stock would last longer if only one was in use per day and the line open less than half the year. Eventually infrastructure and rolling stock costs would make it unsustainable though.

 

[HSTEd]

Averaging 57 passengers is probably better than most two-car operated diesel routes manage.

Unless you want to go around cutting a hell of a lot more than just the IoWR - I would stay away from that argument.

 

[Chester1]

Averaging 57 passengers is probably better than most two-car operated diesel routes manage.

Unless you want to go around cutting a hell of a lot more than just the IoWR - I would stay away from that argument.

The IoW 57 is in the context of high opperating costs leading to a 80% subsidy and the need for bespoke trains. How many branch lines in the UK have a subsidy that high? Most have lower costs and feed long distance services.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The Island Line does feed long distance (boat) services.

So the question is - how can the high costs be reduced? Looking at the German model of branch lines may help - DOO, payment of fares by TVM, complete destaffing etc? The big question is rolling stock and the pier.

(I know people don't like DOO, but if the choices are a DOO train or a DOO bus then surely people prefer a DOO train?)