Keolis Amey Wales - Future Rolling Stock

[krus_aragon]

I must admit to being a bit surprised the Mk4s will only be 3tpd, I had kind of expected a consistent hourly IC on the route.

Without meaning to blow my own trumpet, here's an extract from a post I made three years ago:

I'd been contemplating three return services rather than four as it could be provided by two diagrams, such as:

HHD 0530 - CDF 1000, CDF 1100 - HHD 1530, HHD 1630 - CDF 2100

CDF 0600 - HHD 1030, HHD 1130 - CDF 1600, CDF 1700 - HHD 2130

And, of course, Arriva have two loco-hauled rakes in operation which could form the basis of this operation. With three runs each day, sets would spend alternate nights (and alternate weekends, unless there's a Saturday service) at Canton for maintenance.

 

[krus_aragon]

I think that bump emerges mainly because of additional 153s, and in the slightly clearer copy the bump in the 158s and 175s certainly doesn't appear to be any steeper than the 153s, although I suppose there might be additional 158s coming free? Scotrail maybe?

Here's a crop of that image, so it shows up larger in the forum page. The gradient of the Class 153 and 158 lines are similar (suggesting that there aren't many extra 158s on top of the extra 153s) but the 175 line is definitely steeper. Hence my PRM suspicions.

 

[Bletchleyite]

This BBC article appears to show the regular DMUs as being Class 195s with gangways (the same Derby heritage DMU style front end as in the West Midlands):

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-44316772

Good; I think Northern have been very foolish in specifying 2-car units without gangways which will mostly work paired up.

Now who was it who said a new DMU couldn't be built?

 

[rftorf]

I see the BBC have updated their site with more images of proposed stock.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-44316772

 

[Doctor Fegg]

That's the character for the sound 'dd' (as in "Caerdydd" or "this") in the IPa alphabet. I think I've come across it in some old Middle-Welsh writings, but I can't recall exactly. It's not just fancy typeface styling: there is a little bit of pedigree to it.

You're probably thinking of the 'eth' (ð) which is usually written with a line through it. A regular character in Old English, Old Norse etc., but yes, pretty rare in Medieval Welsh orthography.

 

[47802]

Well overall looks positive, I think there might be disappointment about the use of New DMU on the Marches and is arguably not a massive improvement other than being new, the Mk4 service is little more than a token gesture, and if the DMU's are to be standard 195's as per the image there be one particular poster along shortly to express disgust about using suburban style doors on longer distance services. I have no doubt many would have preferred Stadler units on the Marches but I suspect they are substancially more expensive than a CAF DMU and questionable range on Diesel.

North Wales Metro Oh dear, just when you think you are safe these things manage to crawl out of the woodwork.

 

[Domh245]

This BBC article appears to show the regular DMUs as being Class 195s with gangways (the same Derby heritage DMU style front end as in the West Midlands):

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-44316772

Supposedly WMR's DMUs are 196s, so these will either be more of those, or 197s (if logic follows, always a big if with TOPS). Interesting to see that they've been captioned as "new-look trains for long distance journeys" so it would seem that at a minimum CAF have got the Long distance and Rural fleet, and logical would dictate that the South Wales DMUs would follow on.

Looking then at the image of the tramtrain

I can't help but notice similarities (the chin and rounded windows) to Stadler products - or at the least, dissimilarities to CAFs tram train. Are we looking then at an all Stadler Metro, and CAF for everything else (based on my interpolation of the charts, 224 Stadler vehicles to 173 CAF)

Here's a crop of that image, so it shows up larger in the forum page. The gradient of the Class 153 and 158 lines are similar (suggesting that there aren't many extra 158s on top of the extra 153s) but the 175 line is definitely steeper. Hence my PRM suspicions.

Indeed, but I think that can be chalked up to the fact that it was a promotional video. If you look at the slightly more formal chart, all of the bumps appear to be the same size. I think we can rule out the PRM suspicion anyway because we don't see a drop in the number of 150s and 158s in the franchise although we know that they are off for PRM works.

 

[krus_aragon]

You're probably thinking of the 'eth' (ð) which is usually written with a line through it. A regular character in Old English, Old Norse etc., but yes, pretty rare in Medieval Welsh orthography.

Thank you. Now that an expert has chimed in, I'll go back to playing with my fibre optics and computers.

 

[JohnElliott]

Flirts, Winks and Kisses - does the Stadler product range get progressively more explicit? If they put in a bid for HS2 I dread to think what they'd call it.

Ken Skates is quite a tease, isn't he? The impressions he has posted so far look very interesting.

TEASE sounds like it would fit into the Stadler range quite well.

 

[krus_aragon]

Indeed, but I think that can be chalked up to the fact that it was a promotional video. If you look at the slightly more formal chart, all of the bumps appear to be the same size. I think we can rule out the PRM suspicion anyway because we don't see a drop in the number of 150s and 158s in the franchise although we know that they are off for PRM works.

Yes, in that chart there's no difference in gradient, suggesting additional 153s. Where was that chart from, if I may ask?

Edit: found it: https://gov.wales/docs/cabinetstatements/2018/180604serviceimprovementsen.pdf page 3

 

[Domh245]

Yes, in that chart there's no difference in gradient, suggesting additional 153s. Where was that chart from, if I may ask?

Annex B, from this document accompanying Ken's speech - it also details the service improvements and capacity increase

 

[transmanche]

Well overall looks positive, I think there might be disappointment about the use of New DMU on the Marches and is arguably not a massive improvement other than being new, the Mk4 service is little more than a token gesture[...]

There's also the new services to/from Liverpool:

• Introducing a 1tph service between Chester and Liverpool Lime Street in December 2018.
• Introducing a new Liverpool to Llandudno and Shrewsbury service (1tph) and Liverpool to Cardiff service (1 train every 2 hours)

The first, we knew about already.

But as for the second, I'm wondering if this means we will see the Liverpool-Chester service extended to Llandudno & Shrewsbury - splitting at Chester - with alternate Shrewsbury trains further extended to Cardiff.

If so, this would suggest a half-hourly service between Chester and Shrewsbury!

Source: http://tfw.gov.wales/whats-happening-wales-borders

 

[krus_aragon]

Further thoughts on the North Wales Coast:
From 2019:
Cardiff Central - Holyhead
0.5tph gains: 3tpd Loco-hauled coaching stock (LHCS) included in 0.5tph; faster journeys
From 2022:
Crewe/ Liverpool Lime St–Holyhead/ Llandudno and Manchester Airport–Chester
2tph made up of 1tph Manchester Airport–Llandudno; 1tph Crewe–Chester becomes:
3tph made up of 1tph Manchester Airport–Bangor; 1tph Liverpool Lime St–Llandudno; 1tph Crewe–Chester

Boiling that down suggests 2.5tph between Chester and Llandudno, 1.5tph between Llandudno and Bangor, and 0.5tph Bangor to Holyhead, not including West Coast (Euston) services.

(Also nothing said about the Conwy Valley or winter Sunday services to Llandudno.)

 

[pemma]

There's also the new services to/from Liverpool:
The first, we knew about already.

The rolling stock chart seems to indicate that service will have to be covered using either 769s or other units freed up by the introduction of 769s.

 

[krus_aragon]

There's also the new services to/from Liverpool:
The first, we knew about already.

But as for the second, I'm wondering if this means we will see the Liverpool-Chester service extended to Llandudno & Shrewsbury - splitting at Chester - with alternate Shrewsbury trains further extended to Cardiff.

If so, this would suggest a half-hourly service between Chester and Shrewsbury!

Source: http://tfw.gov.wales/whats-happening-wales-borders

I'm not so sure. Here it's described as 0.5tph Liverpool - Cardiff, with 0.5tph Shrewsbury to Cardiff. Add in the 0.5tph Holyhead to Cardiff and that gives the existing 1tph between Chester and Shrewsbury. I can't find any other services to bump it up.

Edit: Here we have Introducing a new Liverpool to Llandudno and Shrewsbury service (1tph) and Liverpool to Cardiff service (1 train every 2 hours). That could make 1.5tph, which I believe is the capacity of the current infrastructure between Wrexham and Chester.

 

[whhistle]

Good; I think Northern have been very foolish in specifying 2-car units without gangways which will mostly work paired up.

Which makes me think why didn't they just order 3-car or go all out and order 4-car units anyway.
The tiny amount of time they'll spend operating as 2-car units - may as well just get 4-cars.

 

[OrangeJuice]

I'm not so sure. Here it's described as 0.5tph Liverpool - Cardiff, with 0.5tph Shrewsbury to Cardiff. Add in the 0.5tph Holyhead to Cardiff and that gives the existing 1tph between Chester and Shrewsbury. I can't find any other services to bump it up.

Edit: Here we have Introducing a new Liverpool to Llandudno and Shrewsbury service (1tph) and Liverpool to Cardiff service (1 train every 2 hours). That could make 1.5tph, which I believe is the capacity of the current infrastructure between Wrexham and Chester.

Would the Birmingham to Chester/Holyhead also need adding to that which currently is 1 train every two hours.

Also south of Shrewsbury its a little confusing over what they are proposing. I'm probably wrong but the document seems to imply 2.5 tph Shrewsbury to Cardiff made up of:
- 1tph Manchester - Milford Haven/Carmarthen
- 0.5tph Holyhead - Cardiff (fast service)
- 0.5 tph Liverpool - Cardiff
Plus 0.5 tph Shrewsbury - Cardiff

Is this right?

 

[krus_aragon]

Would the Birmingham to Chester/Holyhead also need adding to that which currently is 1 train every two hours.

Also south of Shrewsbury its a little confusing over what they are proposing. I'm probably wrong but the document seems to imply 2.5 tph Shrewsbury to Cardiff made up of:
- 1tph Manchester - Milford Haven/Carmarthen
- 0.5tph Holyhead - Cardiff (fast service)
- 0.5 tph Liverpool - Cardiff
Plus 0.5 tph Shrewsbury - Cardiff

Is this right?

If Aberystwyth-Shrewsbury is going to be 1tph, they'll presumably all be continuing to Birmingham. That leaves the Holyhead-Chester-Shrewsbury service conspicuously not mentioned anywhere in the multiple press releases I've read. I think it'll be replaced by the Liverpool-Shrewsbury service and the announced revisions to the North Wales Coast timetable.

 

[ATW158Xpress]

Would the Birmingham to Chester/Holyhead also need adding to that which currently is 1 train every two hours.

Also south of Shrewsbury its a little confusing over what they are proposing. I'm probably wrong but the document seems to imply 2.5 tph Shrewsbury to Cardiff made up of:
- 1tph Manchester - Milford Haven/Carmarthen
- 0.5tph Holyhead - Cardiff (fast service)
- 0.5 tph Liverpool - Cardiff
Plus 0.5 tph Shrewsbury - Cardiff

Is this right?

It looks right by looking at the document about proposed services levels. it works out that the current Holyhead - Cardiff service will be limited stop between Shrewsbury and Newport either that's non stop or a call at Hereford? This leaves 1tph Cardiff - Shrewsbury (all stations) extending to Liverpool every 2 hours.

The 1thp Manchester - Carmarthen extending Milford Haven every 2 hours will be a (semi fast) service calling at major stations between Newport and Shrewsbury calling at Cwmbran, Abergaveny, Hereford, Leominster, Ludlow and Shrewsbury.

 

[ag51ruk]

Disappointing to see that Manchester - Cardiff and beyond trains will still be a mixture of 2 and 3 coaches (albeit with new rolling stock) - given that any new 2 coach train is unlikely to have more seats than an equivalent 175.

 

[ATW158Xpress]

Disappointing to see that Manchester - Cardiff and beyond trains will still be a mixture of 2 and 3 coaches (albeit with new rolling stock) - given that any new 2 coach train is unlikely to have more seats than an equivalent 175.

Mind 2 car units might be double up to make 4 car trains when needed.

 

[pemma]

Disappointing to see that Manchester - Cardiff and beyond trains will still be a mixture of 2 and 3 coaches (albeit with new rolling stock) - given that any new 2 coach train is unlikely to have more seats than an equivalent 175.

There will be a significant increase in the number of carriages the franchise has but with some frequency enhancements as well, it's not that easy to work out exactly how many carriages will be available for Manchester to South Wales. Also note they'll be a Liverpool to South Wales service which make take some of the pressure of the Manchester service.

 

[Doctor Fegg]

Pleasantly surprised to see two of my personal bugbears addressed - the exorbitant fares for local journeys between Leominster and Shrewsbury, and the pitiful Sunday service (assuming this is addressed on the Marches as elsewhere).

 

[krus_aragon]

Disappointing to see that Manchester - Cardiff and beyond trains will still be a mixture of 2 and 3 coaches (albeit with new rolling stock) - given that any new 2 coach train is unlikely to have more seats than an equivalent 175.

And as I've suggested up-thread, Manchester to Carmarthen/Milford is such a long journey (6 hours end-to-end) that while you may be going through Cardiff at rush hour, it'll be off-peak elsewhere on the route, so with a fixed formation you'll have capacity in the wrong place at the wrong time. 2 carriages will do for Cardiff-Carmarthen at 2pm on a Wednesday lunchtime, but probably not for Crewe-Manchester at 0830 in the morning. (These two services are currently operated by the same diagram.)

 

[backontrack]

Supposedly WMR's DMUs are 196s, so these will either be more of those, or 197s (if logic follows, always a big if with TOPS). Interesting to see that they've been captioned as "new-look trains for long distance journeys" so it would seem that at a minimum CAF have got the Long distance and Rural fleet, and logical would dictate that the South Wales DMUs would follow on.

Looking then at the image of the tramtrain

I can't help but notice similarities (the chin and rounded windows) to Stadler products - or at the least, dissimilarities to CAFs tram train. Are we looking then at an all Stadler Metro, and CAF for everything else (based on my interpolation of the charts, 224 Stadler vehicles to 173 CAF)

I like those mock-ups. I like them a lot, actually.

I agree that there is something Stadleresque about them.

 

[Gareth Marston]

And as I've suggested up-thread, Manchester to Carmarthen/Milford is such a long journey (6 hours end-to-end) that while you may be going through Cardiff at rush hour, it'll be off-peak elsewhere on the route, so with a fixed formation you'll have capacity in the wrong place at the wrong time. 2 carriages will do for Cardiff-Carmarthen at 2pm on a Wednesday lunchtime, but probably not for Crewe-Manchester at 0830 in the morning. (These two services are currently operated by the same diagram.)

There's mention of First Class between Manchester and Swansea in the TfW's region by region points (strangely in the West and Mid one but no elsewhere) strongly suggest that West Wales will be Standard only detached portions at Swansea and formations longer between Swansea and Manchester.

 

[krus_aragon]

There's mention of First Class between Manchester and Swansea in the TfW's region by region points (strangely in the West and Mid one but no elsewhere) strongly suggest that West Wales will be Standard only detached portions at Swansea and formations longer between Swansea and Manchester.

Agreed. The fact that the contrasting statements (new DMUs Milford-Manchester, First Class Swansea-Manchester) appear on the same page make it a very strong suggestion.

Also:

Additional summer Sunday services from May 2023 between Tywyn and Pwllheli – including a new 1tph express service between major centres by 2025

Are those the services that were originlaly (part-)funded by Gwynedd Council back in the ~80's, or am I thinking of the winter Sunday service?

 

[krus_aragon]

If Aberystwyth-Shrewsbury is going to be 1tph, they'll presumably all be continuing to Birmingham. That leaves the Holyhead-Chester-Shrewsbury service conspicuously not mentioned anywhere in the multiple press releases I've read. I think it'll be replaced by the Liverpool-Shrewsbury service and the announced revisions to the North Wales Coast timetable.

Though reading further through Ken Skates' speech:

There will be regular hourly services on the Cambrian line between Shrewsbury and Aberystwyth

Not between Birmingham and Aberystwyth. This could suggest that Holyhead-Birmingham survives, although I also recall talk of West Midlands Trains wanting to run more of the Shrewsbury-Birmingham services in the future.

 

[OrangeJuice]

Agreed.
Also:
Are those the services that were originlaly (part-)funded by Gwynedd Council back in the ~80's, or am I thinking of the winter Sunday service?

Would these services run from Dovey Junction to connect with Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth or are they literally going to run from Tywyn?

Would there be issues with turnaround times/lack of passing loop and capacity Machynlleth to Dovey Junction?

These would definitely be welcome as it's an incredibly busy line in summer.

Edit:

Having re-read the link it appears to suggest 1tph express from 2025 in addition to the Sunday improvement

 

[krus_aragon]

Would these services run from Dovey Junction to connect with Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth or are they literally going to run from Tywyn?

Would there be issues with turnaround times/lack of passing loop and capacity Machynlleth to Dovey Junction?

These would definitely be welcome as it's an incredibly busy line in summer.

Edit:

Having re-read the link it appears to suggest 1tph express from 2025 in addition to the Sunday improvement

With expresses and stoppers for the holiday-goers, it seems reasonable to turn some of these around at Tywyn. I haven't looked into which would be the more practical.