Were refurbished HSTs the right choice for ScotRail?

[DarloRich]

Mod Note: Posts #1 - #27 originally in this thread.

Metro headline this morning condemns 40-year-old trains, and the boss of ScotRail got a roasting from pissed off punters at the SNP conference.

typically moronic politicians!

 

[fgwrich]

typically moronic politicians!

Indeed, We'll set the franchise brief out, require the bidder to either take on HSTs to meet the brief or buy new, Approve the plan then moan about it to the media 2 years after approving it! If they had an issue with the age of the HSTs, they've had over 2 years to make make their opinions known. But hey, why not try to polarise public opinion on the eve of the entry to service with statements like that!

 

[Journeyman]

Indeed, We'll set the franchise brief out, require the bidder to either take on HSTs to meet the brief or buy new, Approve the plan then moan about it to the media 2 years after approving it! If they had an issue with the age of the HSTs, they've had over 2 years to make make their opinions known. But hey, why not try to polarise public opinion on the eve of the entry to service with statements like that!

Those were not statements from politicians, they were statements from conference attendees, i.e. ordinary people who will use the services. Also, the franchise requirements were broad enough for a wide range of trains to comply - refurbished 170s would have met the spec.

 

[Journeyman]

Xenophobia alert.
You do know the franchise has made a loss for the last 2 years?
But, hey, why let a fact get in the way of insular beliefs.

Abellio's need to bail out ScotRail has turned into quite a major political issue in the Netherlands. Dutch taxpayers aren't happy about having to fund Scottish railways.

 

[hwl]

Surely most of the HST thinking was about adding a lot more capacity for a sensible cost to enable growth, thus making it easy to justify longer replacements when the time comes rather than always being over loaded.

 

[Journeyman]

Surely most of the HST thinking was about adding a lot more capacity for a sensible cost to enable growth, thus making it easy to justify longer replacements when the time comes rather than always being over loaded.

Looking at it from that angle, it was probably the cheapest way to get more capacity, at least in terms of number of vehicles. I suspect they're horrendously expensive to run compared to 170s though.

 

[yorksrob]

Any small gripes about the internal specifications for trains, are dwarfed in terms of comfort if the capacity isn't there.

If the they bring a lot of extra capacity, and the routes they serve are currently overcrowded, the HST's will be welcomed with open arms by the majority of passengers.

 

[Class37.4]

Personally I don't think it was the right choice, yes HST are good trains but they are showing there age, with an umpteenth cosmetic upgrade, and expensive Power Door rebuild.

I think a better choice may have been to opt for MK5/68 Loco Hauled sets for the Highland Line although arguably they have more single point of failure than a HST even if they are a lot newer, with upgraded 170's with those freed up from the highland line allowing increased capacity on other routes.

However the decision has been made the key questions being the reliability if they prove to be reliable then questions about them will likely soon disappear, if not then it will be a can of worms, along with the other major issue of how long its taking Wabtec to deliver these things.

 

[hwl]

Looking at it from that angle, it was probably the cheapest way to get more capacity, at least in terms of number of vehicles. I suspect they're horrendously expensive to run compared to 170s though.

The power cars will probably be worked less hard than on EC/GWML with all <100mph running so will need less maintenance.

 

[fgwrich]

Surely most of the HST thinking was about adding a lot more capacity for a sensible cost to enable growth, thus making it easy to justify longer replacements when the time comes rather than always being over loaded.

It's a clever strategy, because of the reasons you mention above but at the time it would have also been considered one of the quickest. The delays from Wabtec have been regrettable and unfortunately turned more costly than what I can image had been planned for, but unless any other of the bidders had a Manufacturer and ROSCO lined up that could supply such a capacity and performance boost within the proposed timescale of the refurbished HST sets, then on paper the prosed HSTs would have clinched it for TS & Abellio.

It will be interesting to see how the next few years pan out. I for one wish them to succeed with it. And it will be interesting to see if the gamble is right, and their replacements in 10 + years time ultimately come longer than 4/5/6 cars.

 

[hwl]

It's a clever strategy, because of the reasons you mention above but at the time it would have also been considered one of the quickest. The delays from Wabtec have been regrettable and unfortunately turned more costly than what I can image had been planned for, but unless any other of the bidders had a Manufacturer and ROSCO lined up that could supply such a capacity and performance boost within the proposed timescale of the refurbished HST sets, then on paper the prosed HSTs would have clinched it for TS & Abellio.

It will be interesting to see how the next few years pan out. I for one wish them to succeed with it. And it will be interesting to see if the gamble is right, and their replacements in 10 + years time ultimately come longer than 4/5/6 cars.

Agree on the theoretically quickest into service option. With rolling electrification the replacements will probably be bi-mode which will have been hard /impossible to justify at the time.

 

[Darandio]

This debate is very boring. As a regular HML traveller standing on a rammed 170 with the engine drone the rattle from the roof panels, luggage in corridors bikes overflowing from cycle racks an HST is a massive upgrade. Just having a seat will be great.

Slam door of refurbed they will be appreciated by travellers. So just leave us to enjoy our classic trains.

The first sentence is the only one I agree with you on, this toing and froing between you lot is tiresome.

But the last line, you want to stifle discussion in the thread simply because they disagree with your view about your beloved trains? You effectively only want people posting in here if they want to froth about them?

 

[Northhighland]

The first sentence is the only one I agree with you on, this toing and froing between you lot is tiresome.

But the last line, you want to stifle discussion in the thread simply because they disagree with your view about your beloved trains? You effectively only want people posting in here if they want to froth about them?

Not at all. Happy for any debate that solves the problems of travel on the HML.

Check my posting history have always questioned the choice of HST. It is a legitimate argument to have had at the point the decision was being made.

However no use keeping in banging on about it. We don’t know the revised delivery programme or the reasons for them being so far behind. When we do maybe this decision needs reviewed.

But to argue that the HST is not better than current situation is to argue black is white.

 

[Darandio]

Not at all. Happy for any debate that solves the problems of travel on the HML.

Check my posting history have always questioned the choice of HST. It is a legitimate argument to have had at the point the decision was being made.

However no use keeping in banging on about it. We don’t know the revised delivery programme or the reasons for them being so far behind. When we do maybe this decision needs reviewed.

But to argue that the HST is not better than current situation is to argue black is white.

The public will decide, it's wrong to flat out claim that they will be appreciated at this point. In fact, given the big press launch is currently underway and isn't going well i'd expect the public to become more sceptical.

 

[Journeyman]

The public will decide, it's wrong to flat out claim that they will be appreciated at this point. In fact, given the big press launch is currently underway and isn't going well i'd expect the public to become more sceptical.

46 minute delay due to a breakdown. I'd say that's pretty disastrous.

 

[Highlandspring]

Whereas I’d say the use of the word “disastrous” is a hysterical overreaction from someone who is a clearly a committed hater of the whole project.

 

[Sirius]

I think the average passenger won’t care too much about the press jolly.

However on Monday morning...

 

[The Nomad]

First time poster just to say why don't ScotRail get GWR's 5 car 800s so they have longer and new trains like "the public" up there want, and GWR get ScotRail's longer, buffet-car equipped HSTs like "the public" down there want. Some might not have been painted yet...
Sorted. Everybody's happy.

 

[sprinterguy]

46 minute delay due to a breakdown. I'd say that's pretty disastrous.

The train subsequently arrived at Edinburgh Waverley 30 minutes late, but only after significantly delaying two following Scotrail services. I wouldn't call one fault on the press launch to be "disastrous", but certainly highly embarrassing for Scotrail and potentially worrying for future operations, given that Scotrail shouldn't have been short of power cars to choose from for todays' junket and the only other time a power car has operated in passenger service, on loan to LNER, it didn't exactly cover itself in glory when it failed on return to Edinburgh.

The power cars appear to be relatively fault prone even when a large proportion of them aren't being pressed into regular daily service, which will be the case once the full service is (eventually) up and running.

 

[Journeyman]

Whereas I’d say the use of the word “disastrous” is a hysterical overreaction from someone who is a clearly a committed hater of the whole project.

I've asked some pertinent questions about it. I'm not a "committed hater", I want it to work, but fear it won't, and at the moment I'm feeling like I was right.

 

[Journeyman]

The train subsequently arrived at Edinburgh Waverley 30 minutes late, but only after significantly delaying two following Scotrail services. I wouldn't call one fault on the press launch to be "disastrous", but certainly highly embarrassing for Scotrail and potentially worrying for future operations, given that Scotrail shouldn't have been short of power cars to choose from for todays' junket and the only other time a power car has operated in passenger service, on loan to LNER, it didn't exactly cover itself in glory when it failed on return to Edinburgh.

The power cars appear to be relatively fault prone even when a large proportion of them aren't being pressed into regular daily service, which will be the case once the full service is (eventually) up and running.

The incident itself is no better or worse than a whole load of breakdowns that happen every day, but given it was a press run, word is going to spread extremely quickly indeed and add to the already considerable negative opinion about the age of the trains.

As has already been said, the GWR fleet is by far the worse-performing of the lot, with only around 5000 miles between failures. This is what ScotRail are inheriting - the other HSTs manage about 10000, but even that is extremely poor compared to most modern trains.

 

[fgwrich]

The train subsequently arrived at Edinburgh Waverley 30 minutes late, but only after significantly delaying two following Scotrail services. I wouldn't call one fault on the press launch to be "disastrous", but certainly highly embarrassing for Scotrail and potentially worrying for future operations, given that Scotrail shouldn't have been short of power cars to choose from for todays' junket and the only other time a power car has operated in passenger service, on loan to LNER, it didn't exactly cover itself in glory when it failed on return to Edinburgh.

The power cars appear to be relatively fault prone even when a large proportion of them aren't being pressed into regular daily service, which will be the case once the full service is (eventually) up and running.

On a side note, 43163s issue was resolved fairly quickly by Craigentinny and ended up remaining on hire the next day. I believe it might have been an AWS fault.

The ScotRail Power Cars will have had some fettling by Brush at Loughborough, this has included new wiring as well and modifications to allow the power cars to work with the sliding door sets as well as the traditional slam door sets - they would have had the same level of work as the GWR ones, with any extra being paid for by ScotRail.

 

[scotraildriver]

First time poster just to say why don't ScotRail get GWR's 5 car 800s so they have longer and new trains like "the public" up there want, and GWR get ScotRail's longer, buffet-car equipped HSTs like "the public" down there want. Some might not have been painted yet...
Sorted. Everybody's happy.

Because it would have been after all the other orders had been completed. Years later

 

[sprinterguy]

On a side note, 43163s issue was resolved fairly quickly by Craigentinny and ended up remaining on hire the next day. I believe it might have been an AWS fault.

The ScotRail Power Cars will have had some fettling by Brush at Loughborough, this has included new wiring as well and modifications to allow the power cars to work with the sliding door sets as well as the traditional slam door sets - they would have had the same level of work as the GWR ones, with any extra being paid for by ScotRail.

That's true, I perhaps should have mentioned that it was back out the following day.

First time poster just to say why don't ScotRail get GWR's 5 car 800s so they have longer and new trains like "the public" up there want, and GWR get ScotRail's longer, buffet-car equipped HSTs like "the public" down there want. Some might not have been painted yet...
Sorted. Everybody's happy.

Welcome to the forum. It's far too late to change anything at this stage as the agreement for the class 800 trains for GWR was signed in July 2012, having been under development with Hitachi/Agility Trains since 2009, and the lease for the HSTs agreed between Angel Trains and Scotrail in 2015: Scotrail are receiving HSTs entirely because they were available following replacement by GWR.

Plus the Great Western main line is being electrified, so trains able to operate on electric power are required, and in order to comply with PRM-TSI requirements, power doors must be fitted to all TOC operated rolling stock by the end of 2019: In order to produce enough power door fitted HSTs for GWR, Wabtec would be required to convert a lot more carriages than they currently are, without realising any of the increases in capacity that the GWR franchise is currently seeing with one big fleet of class 800/802 trains. Even before the delays in the mark 3 conversion programme came to light, it simply wouldn't be possible to convert that many carriages within the required timeframe.

The GWR IET order is about a lot more than just new trains: It's tied in with electrification, meeting disability requirements and increasing capacity. And conversely, as noted below and bringing this post back on topic, the new IETs probably wouldn't be able to realise the same journey time improvements at Scotrail as the HSTs are expected to!

 

[hwl]

First time poster just to say why don't ScotRail get GWR's 5 car 800s so they have longer and new trains like "the public" up there want, and GWR get ScotRail's longer, buffet-car equipped HSTs like "the public" down there want. Some might not have been painted yet...
Sorted. Everybody's happy.

The IEPs can't achieve HST timings when VTEC tried on Edinburgh - Inverness

 

[RLBH]

First time poster just to say why don't ScotRail get GWR's 5 car 800s so they have longer and new trains like "the public" up there want, and GWR get ScotRail's longer, buffet-car equipped HSTs like "the public" down there want. Some might not have been painted yet...

ScotRail's HSTs are going to be 4 or 5 cars, so not really any use to GWR.

What's been promised with the HSTs sounds good, whether it will turn out to have been a mistake remains to be seen.

Realistically speaking, in order of preference, the options would have been:

1. New stock superior to the HST rebuild in cost/schedule/performance
2. The HST rebuild that's actually being done, which at least seem like an improvement on paper
3. New or refurbished stock inferior to the HST rebuild in cost/schedule/performance
4. Do nothing, and keep running 170s that pretty well everyone agrees are unsuitable

When the HST refurbishment began, the delivery schedule (certainly) and cost (presumably) must have looked more favourable than now, and they will certainly deliver some degree of service improvement in speed and/or quality. Coming up with worse options for renewal is easy, so refurbishing HSTs definitely wasn't the worst choice.

Was there anything that could have delivered the same service improvements the HST is offering sooner or cheaper? Or some other variation on those themes? The credible options seem like Class 802s, Class 68-hauled Mark 5 coaches, or a hypothetical FLIRT. It's not clear to me that any of those would be cheaper or enter service sooner, at least one would offer less speed, and the refurbishment is sufficiently comprehensive that passenger comfort is more or less a wash.

 

[jopsuk]

Of course, what we don't know is what other options Abellio chose the HST one over, and what options other bidders potentially had lined up

 

[Class37.4]

The IEPs can't achieve HST timings when VTEC tried on Edinburgh - Inverness

Even if that's the case I suspect that was in 800 power levels, rather than 802 power levels which would be more likely for any Scotrail order, the new Stadler Bi-modes would seem like a reasonable possibility, I know there is clearly some merit in the argument that electrification needs to progress further before Bi-modes are considered and HST's are a reasonable in-trim solution until the next franchise, however is does mean that virtually all of Scotrail Diesel fleet will need replacing by then.

 

[Clip]

As per the title of the thread - the only way to find out if they were the right choice is to actually have them being used - the delays to the refurb are just one of those things really.

 

[tbtc]

I don't think we can blame politicians/ journalists (always looking for an angle/story) for bringing up the fact that the trains linking Glasgow/ Edinburgh with Dundee/ Aberdeen/ Inverness are around forty years old - it's a huge story (when you consider that they replaced 170s that were new to the route which previously replaced 158s which were new to the route...). To a non-enthusiast (the kind of average member of the public who isn't massively nostalgic for 1970s trains), you can see why it looks like a step backwards.

Put it this way - we have plenty of complaints on the Forum about "cast off" trains (especially *London* cast offs), so it's not unreasonable for the media/ MSPs to find a story out of these old trains replacing the twenty first century ones currently running the services. I know some on here won't agree - HSTs are sacred cows to some and are above criticism but you can't pretend to be surprised that this is making the news (especially when it gives people an excuse to moan about privatisation or foreign owners or whichever drum they are currently beating, regardless of the facts).

Given the fact that speeds are going to be limited to 100mph and the orders of self powered trains capable of meeting that speed on other franchises (in hindsight, the surplus of such trains, given the 170s, 175s and 185s that are going spare shortly), the move of HSTs to Scotland does look a little like a sore thumb - especially given the fact that you'll be able to travel under the wires as far as Dunblane (and the air quality at Waverley/ Queen Street).

One positive to say about the HSTs (which aren't built for routes like Aberdeen - Inverness and are going to be pretty "thirsty" four coach trains) is that it kicks the can down the road into the medium term - if you can squeeze ten/fifteen years out of them then the situation around 2030 should allow for more long term thinking (given that, at the moment, projections of wires to Aberdeen etc seem fanciful, but in a decade's time we'll have more of an idea about what is feasible for infrastructure and can order the trains to match this).

So, generally, it's hard to paint this as a massively positive move but I'm stuck between the journalists/politicians (who will always look for something to complain about) and the HST fanboys (who are delighted at the move). Meh. It's probably a step forward but nothing like as big a step forward as other franchises are taking - whilst EGIP gets twenty first century trains the other cities in Scotland go back to the 1970s. Of course that's a story.

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