I was not suggesting Hawick to Carlisle would generate another 600,000 but that Tweedbank to Carlisle might. As it would include people going from Hawick, St Boswells and Melrose Northward and between the Border towns. It would not need that many more to get close to these sort of numbers if the whole route was re-opened. If the main aim of the project was to promote economic development then you might want to expect higher number of people travelling to and from the Borders.
The main point of the post was to point out that reopening lines in general can to some extent be compared to large project like HS2 thanks to its very high cost per passenger capacity. The previous post weem to suggest this was not the case and that it was only worth investing in addition capacity in area that already have high usage levels and overcrowding. I do accept that the actual cost benefit case south of Hawick would be hard to justify in the current economic paradigm applies. However when you compare it to HS2 in simple terms it surprisingly dose not seem too bad, this may just reflect of how uneconomic HS2 actually is, rather than how great an idea Hawick Carlisle is.
The main point of the post was to point out that reopening lines in general can to some extent be compared to large project like HS2 thanks to its very high cost per passenger capacity. The previous post weem to suggest this was not the case and that it was only worth investing in addition capacity in area that already have high usage levels and overcrowding. I do accept that the actual cost benefit case south of Hawick would be hard to justify in the current economic paradigm applies. However when you compare it to HS2 in simple terms it surprisingly dose not seem too bad, this may just reflect of how uneconomic HS2 actually is, rather than how great an idea Hawick Carlisle is.
I'll post this again as I'm afraid Hawick - Carlisle is never going to generate 600,000 journeys a year.
3.4.20 Summary of Key Points – Traffic and Transport
Borders Rail has experienced significant growth in passenger numbers, and is primarily used by commuters
3.5.19 Travel-to-Work Patterns (2011 Census)
Travel-to-work patterns for Scottish Borders residents
Midlothian (1,100 people or 2%)
City of Edinburgh (4,100 people or 8%)
Less than 100 people travel to Carlisle for work.
So given the 5,200 regular total commuters (not just those by rail) generated something in the region of 850,000 journeys to Galshiels / Stow / Tweedbank that gives us a multiplier of 164.
Apply that same multiplier to the 40 people from the Borders who work in Carlisle and you're looking at around 7,000 journeys per year. Now in reality Carlisle - Hawick would probably get a bigger proportion of tourist and long distance travellers so the 7,000 is a little low but I suspect the usage would be a lot closer to 7,000 pa than it will to 600,000 pa.
To make a viable rail re-opening you need a strong commuter base first to make it work.