Study to consider Borders Railway extension

[BigCj34]

Everything is relative. What might be a 'very popular' tourist destination in the context of the Borders (I lived there for a while and never saw much evidence of what I'd consider 'very' popularity) doesn't necessarily mean the numbers are remotely similar to those of a 'very popular' tourist destination in the Cotswolds, for example.

Unless you live there, the harsh truth about the Borders is that people tend to either go round it (via the A1 or A74) or straight through it on the A7 or the A68. Not many people stop. It's a shame in a way, as it's not especially unattractive. But, having lived there, I can see why. It's an, um, strange part of the world.

At a pinch - and it is a real pinch - if the SNP still has any money after the A9 dualling (providing they've not bankrupted us all with rising taxes, not to mention the impact of Brexit), then I can see Hawick being an attractive proposition as The Next Big Look At What We're Doing For Scotland Transport Project.

But all the rose-tinted spotter dreams (not you, Journeyman) of Hawick-Carlisle and St Boswells-Tweedmouth are utter fantasy. I did have to smile at the quote of Langholm's population of 2300 apparently justifying the huge cost of reinstating a railway, with regular users undoubtedly being a single figure percentage. Sometimes I honestly wonder how much of a grip on reality the sort of people who seem to believe that Building Railways Is The Answer To Everything have

Now now, I'm only stating that in the unlikely event of Hawick Carlisle reopening, where the intermediary stations serve 3000 people, the Langholm branch would add notably more people served for not much extra mileage in the grand scheme of the project. Anyway, clearly that won't happen.

 

[najaB]

the Langholm branch would add notably more people served for not much extra mileage in the grand scheme of the project.

A 50% increase on nothing isn't enough. It would need to add at least 75% to be worth it.

 

[BigCj34]

A 50% increase on nothing isn't enough. It would need to add at least 75% to be worth it.

Actually adding the Langholm branch would provide a 75% increase!

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Actually adding the Langholm branch would provide a 75% increase!

Wasn’t there an option as part of a Borders Railway Extension to go via Longholm rather than Newcastleton.

 

[railjock]

Wasn’t there an option as part of a Borders Railway Extension to go via Longholm rather than Newcastleton.

Even less practical given the geography.

 

[DelW]

Over 1 year is £1,000 per passenger. Over 60 years it's £17 per passenger, which is a much more palatable figure.

It isn’t, as money spent now is worth much more money in future. Or put another way, if you borrowed £1000 now from the bank, and offered to pay it back at £17 a year, you’d be shown the door. Rather quickly.

Plus, if I've read the earlier posts correctly, that estimation is based only on the rebuilding cost of the line. You've still got to provide staff, lease or buy the trains, fuel and maintain the trains, and pay NR's track access charges (or operate, maintain and replace the infrastructure). In a sparsely populated area, fare revenue won't get anywhere close to covering that lot, so you're looking at a continuing operating subsidy as well.

 

[Hagbard Celine]

Further, of course, while claiming the "accelerated" growth on the current Borders Line - which, incidentally, is not universally true, see the Tweedbank usage figures - the programme signally failed to even glance at the vastly different populations and working habits of Tweedbank - Edinburgh and Tweedbank - Carlisle.

Unfortunately you are correct in that Tweedbank's usage has shown little change and remains resolutely stuck at 700% above that forecast on opening.
I think the 'accelerated' growth referred to is that of the Midlothian stations which if maintained may result in them eventually achieving opening forecasts.

Whilst this pattern of usage is supportive of extending to Hawick it could not be replicated beyond there due to the lack of potential passengers.

 

[92002]

Unfortunately you are correct in that Tweedbank's usage has shown little change and remains resolutely stuck at 700% above that forecast on opening.
I think the 'accelerated' growth referred to is that of the Midlothian stations which if maintained may result in them eventually achieving opening forecasts.

Whilst this pattern of usage is supportive of extending to Hawick it could not be replicated beyond there due to the lack of potential passengers.

Ptrdumably a good number of Tweedbank passengers at either Park and tide or bus to Hawick.

Doubtful anything further South doesn't tick any boxes. Only chance for Langholm ls a freight connection from Keilder to Carlisle with passengers on the back of it.

 

[JohnR]

Ptrdumably a good number of Tweedbank passengers at either Park and tide or bus to Hawick.

Doubtful anything further South doesn't tick any boxes. Only chance for Langholm ls a freight connection from Keilder to Carlisle with passengers on the back of it.

I think this is true. I'm not sure how the economics of a freight service to Kielder would stack up, but without it, reopening anything south of Hawick is a dead duck.

 

[deltic08]

Unfortunately you are correct in that Tweedbank's usage has shown little change and remains resolutely stuck at 700% above that forecast on opening.
I think the 'accelerated' growth referred to is that of the Midlothian stations which if maintained may result in them eventually achieving opening forecasts.

Whilst this pattern of usage is supportive of extending to Hawick it could not be replicated beyond there due to the lack of potential passengers.

Have they not reached opening forecasts? I thought figures were passed within a few months of opening.

 

[deltic08]

I think this is true. I'm not sure how the economics of a freight service to Kielder would stack up, but without it, reopening anything south of Hawick is a dead duck.

I think this is true. I'm not sure how the economics of a freight service to Kielder would stack up, but without it, reopening anything south of Hawick is a dead duck.

What about through traffic from England making it easier to visit Hawick and Melrose without a costlier and elongated journey via Edinburgh?

 

[BigCj34]

What about through traffic from England making it easier to visit Hawick and Melrose without a costlier and elongated journey via Edinburgh?

Buses?

 

[Steamysandy]

Buses?

That's what they've got at present from Berwick and Carlisle. so nothing new there.

 

[Bald Rick]

Have they not reached opening forecasts? I thought figures were passed within a few months of opening.

The line as a whole beat Year 1 forecasts in year one (not by much), but growth has not been as strong as forecast, and it is now, roughly, in line with what was expected.

There is a strong suspicion in some quarters that the year 1 figures were helped by a lot of people of a enthusiastic nature going to tick the line off.

 

[HaggisBotherer]

I spent a few very pleasant days in St Boswell’s last year, via train and taxi from Tweedbank. Found Melrose and St Boswell’s to be enjoyable and pleasant.

Should I have been looking for a giant Wicker Man or something?

Live there for a bit and scratch the surface. My theory was that so much blood has been spilled to-ing and fro-ing across that border over the centuries that conflict is deeply ingrained into the psyche. Petty neighbourly squabbles 'dealt with' by a brick through the window, having a pleasant quiet evening at a friends house with a few people and someone decides to suddenly kick the 5H17 out of someone for no reason that anyone else could fathom. A gay neighbour being constantly harassed by the local kids. That was just the start. And quite a few people who seemed to be, um, 'closely related'.

The most futile, idiotic thing I witnessed was the two 'rival' amateur dramatics groups who kept sabotaging each others props and scenery. Honestly, you couldn't make it up.

You're not going to witness any of that on a couple of day's visit. I've been gone from there for well over a decade and it still makes me shudder when I remember living there.

What about through traffic from England making it easier to visit Hawick and Melrose without a costlier and elongated journey via Edinburgh?

But who wants to vist Hawick and Melrose? It's not exactly a hotbed of tourism.

 

[deltic08]

Buses?

This should give an indication of future traffic. Many do not like bus or coach travel but would use a train,

[QUOTE="HaggisB But who wants to visit Hawick and Melrose? It's not exactly a hotbed of tourism.[/QUOTE]

Neither is Workington but I visited 5 or 6 times a year from the West Country to my maternal grandparents.

 

[najaB]

Neither is Workington but I visited 5 or 6 times a year from the West Country to my maternal grandparents.

Well that's okay then, just another 200,000 journeys a year and the line's paid for!

 

[Steamysandy]

So is that how they justified class 37s on services via Workington

 

[NotATrainspott]

Plus, if I've read the earlier posts correctly, that estimation is based only on the rebuilding cost of the line. You've still got to provide staff, lease or buy the trains, fuel and maintain the trains, and pay NR's track access charges (or operate, maintain and replace the infrastructure). In a sparsely populated area, fare revenue won't get anywhere close to covering that lot, so you're looking at a continuing operating subsidy as well.

This is precisely the problem that people don't consider when they look at a rail scheme. If someone won the EuroMillions and used the winnings to pay for the line to be reopened, the government still wouldn't like it. Once the initial capital spending is gone, they're then left with the ongoing operational costs until the end of time since you're not going to be closing it again. These costs can reasonably easily exceed the initial capital costs when you look at a government funding timescale. These operational costs have to be funded at the expense of other future costs like paying for nurses and teachers.

The government is always considering this when they look at investment ideas. This is then why they can be so enthusiastic about building certain projects, even if they're otherwise 'cash-strapped'. For instance, several councils have decided to build themselves shiny new headquarters despite needing to cut services to the bone. That's not only because they want nice things for themselves, but because they've worked out the new office buildings end up being more efficient cost-wise in the long term, especially if they can then sell off the original sites for housing or other development. Often these new offices are deliberately built smaller than what came before as they depend on hot-desking and other modern technological efficiency measures. It's a similar story for new hospitals, where several older hospital campuses get combined together into one shiny new site.

 

[Clayton]

Live there for a bit and scratch the surface. My theory was that so much blood has been spilled to-ing and fro-ing across that border over the centuries that conflict is deeply ingrained into the psyche. Petty neighbourly squabbles 'dealt with' by a brick through the window, having a pleasant quiet evening at a friends house with a few people and someone decides to suddenly kick the 5H17 out of someone for no reason that anyone else could fathom. A gay neighbour being constantly harassed by the local kids. That was just the start. And quite a few people who seemed to be, um, 'closely related'.

The most futile, idiotic thing I witnessed was the two 'rival' amateur dramatics groups who kept sabotaging each others props and scenery. Honestly, you couldn't make it up.

You're not going to witness any of that on a couple of day's visit. I've been gone from there for well over a decade and it still makes me shudder when I remember living there.


But who wants to vist Hawick and Melrose? It's not exactly a hotbed of tourism.

The area is wild and unspoilt and could become popular if accessible and promoted - things like dark skies, yoga breaks, and walking. Don’t forget that a new line brings about new new visits and journey opportunities. Against that, though, is the fact that like the Stranraer area it’s the sort of place that you need a car to make the most of.

 

[deltic08]

Well that's okay then, just another 200,000 journeys a year and the line's paid for!

That's doable

 

[Bald Rick]

The area is wild and unspoilt and could become popular if accessible and promoted - things like dark skies, yoga breaks, and walking.

It doesn’t need an expensive new railway to become accessible (it already is for a significant majority of the population), or to be promoted.

 

[Clayton]

It doesn’t need an expensive new railway to become accessible (it already is for a significant majority of the population), or to be promoted.

No, but a new line would lead to increased promotion. Railways should connect places rather than be dead ends and this one should not have been closed. However it may be that the business case will never be good enough to get it to the top of any priority list

 

[najaB]

Railways should connect places rather than be dead ends and this one should not have been closed.

The same could be said for many lines, but the economics of keeping a kind open are massively different to reopening a closed line (or building a new one).

 

[Hagbard Celine]

Have they not reached opening forecasts? I thought figures were passed within a few months of opening.

See, for example, page 12 of the first year evaluation
Tweedbank ~700% forecast, Gala ~400% forecast, Stow ~400% forecast. None of the Midlothian stations had even reached 100%. The line as a whole met its forecast but clearly the modelling failed to accurately forecast demand from an area which was until then completely devoid of rail transport.

 

[deltic08]

It doesn’t need an expensive new railway to become accessible (it already is for a significant majority of the population), or to be promoted.

It does if you are in a wheelchair like me as coaches are not wheelchair friendly so if I can't get by train I am excluded from the remote parts

 

[Bald Rick]

It does if you are in a wheelchair like me as coaches are not wheelchair friendly so if I can't get by train I am excluded from the remote parts

I do sympathise, but business cases for new railways are not built on the principle of enabling access to a part of the world that a small percentage of the population can’t reach by other means.

There are always alternatives. Rather than drop £1bn on a new railway, with significant ongoing subsidy, it would be rather cheaper to provide a free accessible chauffeur driven luxury taxi service for those that need it. It would be far more accessible, and flexible, and less polluting, than a new railway for a route such as this.

 

[Northhighland]

Everything is relative. What might be a 'very popular' tourist destination in the context of the Borders (I lived there for a while and never saw much evidence of what I'd consider 'very' popularity) doesn't necessarily mean the numbers are remotely similar to those of a 'very popular' tourist destination in the Cotswolds, for example.

Unless you live there, the harsh truth about the Borders is that people tend to either go round it (via the A1 or A74) or straight through it on the A7 or the A68. Not many people stop. It's a shame in a way, as it's not especially unattractive. But, having lived there, I can see why. It's an, um, strange part of the world.

At a pinch - and it is a real pinch - if the SNP still has any money after the A9 dualling (providing they've not bankrupted us all with rising taxes, not to mention the impact of Brexit), then I can see Hawick being an attractive proposition as The Next Big Look At What We're Doing For Scotland Transport Project.

But all the rose-tinted spotter dreams (not you, Journeyman) of Hawick-Carlisle and St Boswells-Tweedmouth are utter fantasy. I did have to smile at the quote of Langholm's population of 2300 apparently justifying the huge cost of reinstating a railway, with regular users undoubtedly being a single figure percentage. Sometimes I honestly wonder how much of a grip on reality the sort of people who seem to believe that Building Railways Is The Answer To Everything have

I suspect from your posts which are frankly quite rude, that few people in the Borders will have missed your presence. It is a lovely part of the world, full of really nice people who're very welcoming. I have spent many happy days there as a child and regularly as an adult. I have to say I do not recognise any of the stereotypes you mention.

As to reinstating the line to Carlisle, I struggle to see the economic case for this, it would be difficult and expensive and unless there were a bigger strategic advantage then hard to see a case. Hawick though for sure would benefit from additional transport links. The cost of such schemes should be considered against the cost of building and maintaining cities like Edinburgh. Good transport links would make Hawick a commuter town for Edinburgh, far better to build housing in Hawick than Edinburgh in my view.

 

[Steamysandy]

I was speaking to someone recently who has family in Hawick.
Her view was that as it stands the train is of little use to her because it terminates short of Hawick. So she drives right through
As I see it Galashiels is the only one of the Border towns properly served at present and that being the case there must be a large number of potential passengers out there who are being lost particularly from Hawick.

 

[NotATrainspott]

I was speaking to someone recently who has family in Hawick.
Her view was that as it stands the train is of little use to her because it terminates short of Hawick. So she drives right through
As I see it Galashiels is the only one of the Border towns properly served at present and that being the case there must be a large number of potential passengers out there who are being lost particularly from Hawick.

Whether it makes sense to drive through depends on where you're going. The universal factor in Scottish rail reopening projects so far has been an easier and faster commute into the major employment centres of Glasgow and Edinburgh. If your journey is to pretty much anywhere else, it'll still probably be easier to just drive all the way. That's true of most journeys from anywhere to anywhere really. Someone living in Hawick commuting to Edinburgh now has the easy option of driving to Tweedbank and then letting the train take the strain of getting them into the centre of the city in a comfortable and timely fashion. Otherwise, they'll have to drive all the way and then have the joys of parking in the city centre.