EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[anme]

There should be arrangements that UK citizens who want to maintain their EU citizenship can do so.

I agree, but I think that won't happen. I advise everyone in the UK who wants to remain European (and I definitely do) to make their own arrangements. I anticipated this problem a bit and my contingency plan was already underway. With some luck I can avoid this result destroying my life. But others may not be so lucky, and I don't trust the British government to safeguard my future and livelihood.

Now is the time to be proactive, before British people lose their rights under European conventions.

(Of course, if the UK remains in the EEA most rights will be retained. There is a reasonable chance that this will happen, but I would not gamble my family's and my own future on it. Boris's statement last night was very worrying in this respect.)
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it doesn't matter - the vote has happened and cant be undone.

But the may well be future votes. Not necessarily on EU membership, but perhaps between EEA membership and isolation. That's a much bigger and more fundamental decision than whether to leave the EU.

 

[DarloRich]

But the may well be future votes. Not necessarily on EU membership, but perhaps between EEA membership and isolation. That's a much bigger and more fundamental decision than whether to leave the EU.

I agree there may be future votes on related topics.

 

[YorkshireBear]

it doesn't matter - the vote has happened and cant be undone.

And Europe have stated that the referendum is final. That's it we have to leave now. Not sure how much that would stack up but they say we have made our decision.

 

[me123]

I don't think that there's much appetite in Europe for us to stay. Unless some gross irregularities come to light, there's nothing that's going to change. We're out. Deal with the consequences.

 

[anme]

I don't think that there's much appetite in Europe for us to stay. Unless some gross irregularities come to light, there's nothing that's going to change. We're out. Deal with the consequences.

But you understand that there are different options now, right? EEA membership remains a possibility and would minimise the negative consequences, and mean we retain most of our rights as individuals.

 

[northwichcat]

I'm not even sure if the programme is secured anymore in the UK... and although this may turn out to be financially advantageous for me (€ to £)

In 2007 you got €1.51 for £1. The pound has never recovered to that level since the 2008 recession (it's currently €1.23 for £1.) This means despite the inclusion of countries like Greece in the Eurozone, the Eurozone has had a consistently stronger economy than Britain for the last few years. Yet the media has tried to give us the impression the Eurozone is weak at the same time as Osborne has been trying to give us the impression the pound is stronger than it actually is.

 

[radamfi]

I don't think that there's much appetite in Europe for us to stay. Unless some gross irregularities come to light, there's nothing that's going to change. We're out. Deal with the consequences.

You might be alright as you are Scottish.

 

[northwichcat]

I've actually had the same thought, but I'm not sure how it could be achieved. Perhaps all the Brits who opt in to the EU could pay an additional tax which goes directly to Brussels and which would allow them freedom of movement and the right to elect an MEP?

Which should mean the EU will also provide funding for local projects for people who pay the additional tax. So we might have a bridge or a rail service which 52% of the UK population can't use.

 

[Senex]

But you understand that there are different options now, right? EEA membership remains a possibility and would minimise the negative consequences, and mean we retain most of our rights as individuals.

If we accept that there's no going back on the decision (even though the referendum Act did not bind parliament), then the EEA would be the least bad option, even though it's all responsibilities and no power. But how many on the Brexit side thought that's what they were voting for and would want to accept it?

If not that, the it must surely be lots of negotiations over a multitude of details. I wonder how many of the Brexiteers realise they could lose their European Health Cards, the possibility for their student children to take part in an Erasmus exchange, fair prices to use their mobiles whilst on holiday in Spain, etc -- all sorts of little things, but little things that will have to be dealt with one by one.

 

[me123]

But you understand that there are different options now, right? EEA membership remains a possibility and would minimise the negative consequences, and mean we retain most of our rights as individuals.

Yes, but what those options entail boils down to how negotiations proceed.

The reality of EEA membership is that it would be very unpalatable to most Brexiters. It requires free movement of goods, services, persons and capital. Essentially, what we have today but without any representation in the place that makes the decisions! It would almost certainly require subscription to Schengen, because don't think for a minute that all the special treatment we got from the EU holds any weight now.

 

[ainsworth74]

And Europe have stated that the referendum is final. That's it we have to leave now. Not sure how much that would stack up but they say we have made our decision.

I'm not convinced they have a choice. There is no mechanism by which they can expell us. They are dependent on us enacting Article 50.

 

[YorkshireBear]

I'm not convinced they have a choice. There is no mechanism by which they can expell us. They are dependent on us enacting Article 50.

That is also my understanding. Hence my confusion over their comments.

Lots of big talk to come this week from them I think. In my opinion there is more value to them from keeping the EU together than there is in giving us a trade deal that is beneficial to us. Even if losing some trade with us would do them harm, i think the collapse of the EU would do more so we might be onto a loser in trade negotiations.

___________________________________________________________

Can we have access to the single market without free movement, someone shouts as he leaves.

"Absolutely," Mr Johnson replies.

Now that is optimism for you.

 

[anme]

Yes, but what those options entail boils down to how negotiations proceed.

The reality of EEA membership is that it would be very unpalatable to most Brexiters. It requires free movement of goods, services, persons and capital. Essentially, what we have today but without any representation in the place that makes the decisions! It would almost certainly require subscription to Schengen, because don't think for a minute that all the special treatment we got from the EU holds any weight now.

Let's assume we have a referendum on EEA membership versus isolation. I'm not saying we will, but it's a possibility.

Let's assume the 48% of the electorate who voted to remain would vote for the EEA.
We only need 2.1% more to get a majority.
This may take a couple of years. Quite a few of the leave voters will have died by then, or be too infirm to vote.
The economy may have taken a turn for the worse, increasing support for stability - the EEA is a much more stable option than isolation.
People seem to belatedly be learning about the benefits of EU membership which they just voted to give up. Many of those benefits would be preserved in the EEA.
I think the additional 2.1% would be achievable. Not certain, but far from impossible. We don't need to please all the Bexiters, just 4% of them - 1 in 25. (2.1/52=0.0403)

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

It's an absolute farce.

You've got Farage and IDS frantically rowing back from the £350m figure as it transpires that it was lie (quelle surprise!)

You've got areas that voted Brexit (Cornwall and Wales) now frantically seeking assurances that they won't lose any funding by exiting the EU

The best we can hope for is a deal with into the EEA to access the single market which has the majority of the perceived disbenefits (i.e. free movement of people, adherence to EU regulations) with any opportunity to influence things

A likely relocation of the border to Kent (rather than Calais) so that those people who voted against the EU now have the problem of dealing with migrants in their back yard rather than across the water

And a period of economic uncertainty that at best will see things flatline and at worst have a recession - a recession that we've actually gone and voted for!

I mean..... you can't make this stuff up. If it wasn't reality, you'd swear it was a comedy sketch (like the Long Johns)

 

[Senex]

I'm not convinced they have a choice. There is no mechanism by which they can expell us. They are dependent on us enacting Article 50.

The more we find out, the more of a horrible mess it seems to be. They can't get rid of us, so it all hangs on when we start the two-year exit process by using Article 50. Until that point we are absolutely full members and entitled to play a full part in things -- even though we've now lost our Commissioner (and had he stayed in a major financial post, that would have been weird in the extreme).

On our side, not only is there no need for urgency, but there is no clear exit policy to negotiate for and such chaos in the two main parties that it is very unclear as to who will do the negotiating. And there is the fact that this referendum is different from the Alternative Vote one. That contained a clause requiring the decision to be given effect. This doesn't have such a clause, so the legal status, as David Lammy has pointed out, is purely advisory, however many promises have been made to follow up the decision with action. But what action, and when? And how many of those who voted for a Brexit will be happy when they see the sort of compromises that may have to be made to achieve the sort of arrangements that some of the Brexit leaders are now talking about?

 

[DarloRich]

I'm not convinced they have a choice. There is no mechanism by which they can expell us. They are dependent on us enacting Article 50.

short of a change of rules - which you assume would come in short order if we prevaricate.

 

[Senex]

It's an absolute farce.

You've got Farage and IDS frantically rowing back from the £350m figure as it transpires that it was lie (quelle surprise!)

You've got areas that voted Brexit (Cornwall and Wales) now frantically seeking assurances that they won't lose any funding by exiting the EU

The best we can hope for is a deal with into the EEA to access the single market which has the majority of the perceived disbenefits (i.e. free movement of people, adherence to EU regulations) with any opportunity to influence things

A likely relocation of the border to Kent (rather than Calais) so that those people who voted against the EU now have the problem of dealing with migrants in their back yard rather than across the water

And a period of economic uncertainty that at best will see things flatline and at worst have a recession - a recession that we've actually gone and voted for!

I mean..... you can't make this stuff up. If it wasn't reality, you'd swear it was a comedy sketch (like the Long Johns)

Now that seems a very fair summary to me!

 

[ExRes]

We have 48% of the electorate. If we can attract 2.1% more (1 in 20 leave voters would be more than enough) we will have a majority.

Perhaps Remain would have won handsomely if the 28% who couldn't be bothered had actually voted on thursday, you will have to explain to me though, how is it that 52% is really only 37% and not a big enough majority to be a mandate, but 50.1% in a 'rerun' would, presumably, be a genuine mandate?

I'm not trying to be argumentative, just interested in how different outcomes can have different 'rules'

 

[radamfi]

An easy fix would be to give Irish citizenship to any Brit who wants it. They already give it to people from Northern Ireland. It is only fair given that they have freedom to live and work and even vote in the UK regardless of EU membership.

 

[miami]

Well it sort of is the reality, given we aren't in Schengen or the Eurozone.

We weren't. I wonder what deal we'll have to negotiate.

 

[anme]

Perhaps Remain would have won handsomely if the 28% who couldn't be bothered had actually voted on thursday, you will have to explain to me though, how is it that 52% is really only 37% and not a big enough majority to be a mandate, but 50.1% in a 'rerun' would, presumably, be a genuine mandate?

I'm not trying to be argumentative, just interested in how different outcomes can have different 'rules'

I am NOT arguing for a rerun of the last referendum. I am saying there may be future referendums with DIFFERENT questions. One such question could be on EEA membership. I was speculating on the result of that referendum.

Is this that clear now?

BTW, I wouldn't totally rule out another referendum on EU membership, especially when the disadvantages of EEA membership become clear. But that's a long way down the road from where we are now.

 

[northwichcat]

An easy fix would be to give Irish citizenship to any Brit who wants it. They already give it to people from Northern Ireland. It is only fair given that they have freedom to live and work and even vote in the UK regardless of EU membership.

People with Irish grandparents are allowed to apply for an Irish passport which covers a lot of people resident in Northern Ireland, as well as a significant number from the rest of the UK. However, the Republic of Ireland is 100% independent from the UK so whether the Irish issue passports to people who don't have Irish grandparents and who aren't resident in the ROI is something which the UK government has 0% control over. Maybe Sinn Fein will agree to it in condition for handing over NI?

EDIT: Just looked at the FAQs on the Irish government website and there are caveats attached to the Irish grandparents condition.

 

[Harbornite]

There are some unfortunates who are so old that they represent the old adage of when running after nubile blondes, then not being able to remember what to do next when they catch up to them...

I remember the well known iconic Irish folk group, The Dubliners, singing a song with one line saying ....
"Maids when you're young, never wed an old man"....

I guess it's like a dog chasing its own tail!

 

[ainsworth74]

short of a change of rules - which you assume would come in short order if we prevaricate.

In which case one would assume that we would simply veto such a change as it would be so fundimental as to no doubt require the approvial of all memeber states which still includes us.

 

[ExRes]

I am NOT arguing for a rerun of the last referendum. I am saying there may be future referendums with DIFFERENT questions. One such question could be on EEA membership. I was speculating on the result of that referendum.

Is this that clear now?

BTW, I wouldn't totally rule out another referendum on EU membership, especially when the disadvantages of EEA membership become clear. But that's a long way down the road from where we are now.

I do happen to realise that you personally aren't arguing for a another referendum, but plenty are

I can't imagine any circumstances that another referendum would be allowed to take part, although maybe that's not quite right, if France, the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany etc decide to have their own vote then the EU hierarchy may take notice of its membership

 

[Howardh]

Over the past few hours I've become more and more convinced that we wont actually end up leaving the EU

There should be arrangements that UK citizens who want to maintain their EU citizenship can do so.

The noises coming out of Europe, and leave themselves, have convinced me either Brexit won't happen, or if it does it's so watered down it's not worth the bother. Instead of shouting "Victory For Britain!" from the rooftops, Boris is sounding more like the leader of Leave than Cameron was! What - calm down, let's take our time....he's either having second thoughts, been caught with his pants down or just come out of a meeting with Sir Humphrey.

If full-on Brexit WERE to happen, then I'd gladly pay for a joint UK/EU passport to keep all my rights in the EU, even if they don't apply at home, such as totally free movement, right of abode etc etc. Cost? I's happily pay a grand for a 10-year jobbie to keep those rights.

 

[Bodiddly]

Trading suspended on Bank shares due to plummeting share prices. We are only into the second business day after Brexit. This is an absolute disaster for the UK.

 

[Mvann]

I have had a quick look about the EEA. I have one problem with this and one major concern. If we have to abide by the EU non EU trade agreements, I have some problems with it. How long has it taken to sort out a new trade agreement with the USA? If it's the USA we need to keep negotiating. If it's the members of the EU, we would be better sorting out our own agreements. The biggest concern I the free movement issue. The British people and the EU can both see our infrastructure can't cope with the amount of immigrant/EU citizens coming to this country. The EU have already given at least one warning about this. We need to have some sort of short term restrictions, even if its like the night club analogy of one in one out, until we have the housing and everything that goes with.

 

[anme]

In which case one would assume that we would simply veto such a change as it would be so fundimental as to no doubt require the approvial of all memeber states which still includes us.

In, say, 1-2 years, if the UK hasn't invoked article 50 the EU might well find a way to say "put up or shut up" to the UK. The government would then have to decide whether to veto a resolution effectively telling them to finally enact the democratic decision of their people.

If it really takes that long, I wonder if we would end up having another referendum on EU membership. I'm not calling for it, but if the process has gone so badly that article 50 hasn't been invoked by, say, mid-2018, you have to ask whether it would ever be invoked, and the UK would need to resolve its position one way or the other.

How likely is this? Check out what Michael Gove said on the 5th June (22 days ago): http://www.itv.com/news/2016-06-05/gove-brexit-will-bring-immigration-down-to-tens-of-thousands/
"Leave campaigner Michael Gove appears to have conceded that in the event of a Brexit the UK will not actually leave the European Union by the end of Parliament in 2020."
I understand he later withdraw the statement, but it was clearly on his mind.

 

[radamfi]

People with Irish grandparents are allowed to apply for an Irish passport which covers a lot of people resident in Northern Ireland, as well as a significant number from the rest of the UK. However, the Republic of Ireland is 100% independent from the UK so whether the Irish issue passports to people who don't have Irish grandparents and who aren't resident in the ROI is something which the UK government has 0% control over. Maybe Sinn Fein will agree to it in condition for handing over NI?

EDIT: Just looked at the FAQs on the Irish government website and there are caveats attached to the Irish grandparents condition.

This would be an extension of the existing deal for people from Northern Ireland. This might be a favour from the Republic as they want the UK to stay in the EU, so need not necessarily involve the UK government.

Or it might be brokered by the UK government as compensation to those who wanted to stay in the EU. Such a brokered deal could be with any of the 27 member states, or maybe the deal would be with the EU collectively and you could choose which country you wanted, or you could just have a generic EU passport with no nationality.