Govia get Thameslink Franchise

[ivanhoe]

Not good for First Group. Cancelled dividend for 2014 and citing poor performance within UK Bus divisions and USA.Losing out on such a lucrative franchise is certainly not going to help matters.

 

[SAPhil]

Didn't Govia used to have the old Thameslink franchise before First got it?

 

[hassaanhc]

Go-Ahead statement and presentation, including financials
http://www.go-ahead.com/ir/result_centre/2014result.aspx



To deliver a new fleet of trains by 2016, surely they must have somebody already set up, or is there an existing order where they can exercise an option?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Only the Thameslink and GN parts. Southern and Gatwick Express branding remains.

Hmm, 6 car units for GN... Not many of those around currently so they'll be fairly unique, good for passengers as they won't get three car trains turn up and moan at the TOC for short trains but then more likely to be a complete cancellation rather than a short form of 3 coaches (which some passengers probably prefer given their moaning )

 

[swt_passenger]

I wonder if some of the widely assumed stock alterations discussed before now were actually leaked from the First proposals. The particular one I'm thinking of was the regularly mentioned transfer of the 313s from Coastway services to augment the Moorgate route. As it turns out the latter service is now getting its own new fleet, so perhaps the entire 313 fleet will now be transferrable elsewhere?

In which case I should probably start a new thread in the rolling stock section as well...

 

[jopsuk]

so perhaps the entire 313 fleet will now be transferrable elsewhere?

A scrap yard...

 

[387star]

A joke gatwick express needs new trains to replace those SWT poached

Any news on what the new franchise means for guards?

 

[swt_passenger]

A joke gatwick express needs new trains to replace those SWT poached...

SWT didn't actually "poach" the 460s. They were always going off lease well before Porterbrook decided to use them as a way of extending the 458s.

Any news on what the new franchise means for guards?

You could try the TSGN ITT, what DfT proposed it is all covered in there, but do we really need another debate about guards policy on the future franchise?

All staff who really need to know should find out through their official channels...

 

[387star]

If govia doesnt receive ticket sales how does that work profit wise

 

[swt_passenger]

If govia doesnt receive ticket sales how does that work profit wise

DfT pay GoVia to operate the franchise. If you follow the link stats provided earlier, there's a presentation there:

http://www.go-ahead.com/~/media/Files/G/Go-Ahead/media/news/2014news/23-05-2014-presentation.pdf

Franchise payments
•Govia will work with the DfT to generate passenger revenue of an estimated £12.4bn over the life of the franchise for the benefit of the taxpayer. Franchise payments from the DfT to Govia will amount to an estimated £8.9bn, with an anticipated NPV of £6.8bn*
•Franchise payments are calculated as the amount forecast at the time of the bid to:
–Reflect the franchisee’s operating costs
–Generate the franchisee’s margin on net cost (gross cost less ancillary revenues)
•Franchise payments are contracted at 30 September 2014 prices and are largely indexed at RPI

... about half of which is on financial matters, but it basically says that the payments DfT makes should allow GoVia a 3% profit margin.

 

[Chrisgr31]

Nothing in the realeases about new or additional rolling stock for the Uckfield Line. However the line has done very well under the Southern franchise so I suspect there is something around for it.

Or is it wishful thinking!

 

[cle]

Any news on their plans for the Sevenoaks TL services, and those beyond (via Denmark Hill and Catford Loop) ?

 

[Gricerjo]

Its good news. I don't use Southern much, but despite a lot of unfair criticism, Southeastern (my regular commute) do a good job.

 

[Class377/5]

Any news on their plans for the Sevenoaks TL services, and those beyond (via Denmark Hill and Catford Loop) ?

2tph to Sevenoaks stopper via Catford Loop and the 'peak' Maidstone East services with SE possibily providing other services.

 

[al.currie93]

Not good for First Group. Cancelled dividend for 2014 and citing poor performance within UK Bus divisions and USA.Losing out on such a lucrative franchise is certainly not going to help matters.

It's not good at all for them; each bid costs a lot to set up and put in, and they've had the West Coast disaster which made a bad situation and now this which has made it even worse... the best thing that can happen for them now is that they win East Coast. Their CEO must be cursing the DfT now
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Nothing in the realeases about new or additional rolling stock for the Uckfield Line. However the line has done very well under the Southern franchise so I suspect there is something around for it.

Or is it wishful thinking!

I doubt that the current rolling stock will change for the forseeable future; the 171s do their job fine, and I doubt electrification will happen as it's difficult and VERY expensive to extend the distribution circuit in that area to simply get the electricity to that line sadly. :/ I could be surprised though!

 

[47802]

Another forum its saying that the new Gatwick stock will be the follow on 387 order which will be presumably be more likely become another 377 variant, and given the proposed timescale for delivery I doubt it could be anything else.

The 313's I guess some kind of Desiro City or Aventra variant is likely

442's I would imagine going for scrap but no doubt the wacky rumours for further use will now go into overdrive, along with 313's to the Cardiff valley's.

 

[cle]

2tph to Sevenoaks stopper via Catford Loop and the 'peak' Maidstone East services with SE possibily providing other services.

So nothing really then!

Any news on the Southeastern Victoria to Bellingham/Bromley services which were talked about a lot a while back, since gone quiet...?

 

[Chrisgr31]

I doubt that the current rolling stock will change for the forseeable future; the 171s do their job fine, and I doubt electrification will happen as it's difficult and VERY expensive to extend the distribution circuit in that area to simply get the electricity to that line sadly. :/ I could be surprised though!

Not complaining about the current stock and indeed it does the job well and is a lot more comfortable that the elctric stock; I also can't see electricfication in the immediate future either. However the problem is overcrowding on the peak services, and there is a plan by Network Rail to lengthen platforms on the Uckfield Line to 10 coaches. However there's no point doing that unless there is additional rolling stock to run 10 coach trains!

Not a particular worry as most days I get a seat, but it would be good not to have to get to Londondon Bridge at 17.45 to be sure of a seat on the 18.08 departure!

 

[47421]

See below from the investor presentation.

If Govia take no revenue risk at all isnt this more of a concession than a franchise?

Did the ITT state that this franchise would be awarded on this basis?

Does anyone know which other franchises are expected to be awarded on basis of DfT retaining all the revenue risk?




•DfT retains passenger revenue risk (full upside and downside)
•Performance regimes
–Thameslink Programme incentive provides £nil to £25m income for achieving milestones, mostly payable mid-term
–There are incentives or penalties for a range of service quality targets (punctuality, passenger experience, revenue protection etc) over the life of the franchise
•Govia bears cost and ancillary revenue risk (except some infrastructure/rolling stock charges)
•Key cost risks include integration, staff, rolling stock, electricity costs and cost of sales

 

[3141]

I love that quote from Stephen Hammond (in post no. 3):-

"In addition, Govia will order a new fleet of 108 carriages for the Gatwick Express service, replacing the current 25-year-old trains with a fleet better suited to the needs of airport passengers."

It was the DfT which decided to merge Gatwick Express into Southern and replace the class 460s which had been designed for the Gatwick service with 442s - in order to enable longer trains to run and be extended to the south coast. Now the minister presents it as if the present arrangement is the result of some fool and his department is going to put things right. Purpose-designed stock will indeed be better but the situation to be put right is the DfT's own creation.

Probably some Portsmouth line passengers will hope the 442s will go there, which would release 450s to strengthen other SWT services, but it would mean they get fewer seats than at present so it's unlikely.

 

[Minstral25]

Another forum its saying that the new Gatwick stock will be the follow on 387 order which will be presumably be more likely become another 377 variant, and given the proposed timescale for delivery I doubt it could be anything else.

The 313's I guess some kind of Desiro City or Aventra variant is likely

442's I would imagine going for scrap but no doubt the wacky rumours for further use will now go into overdrive, along with 313's to the Cardiff valley's.

Won't 442's be retained for Brighton expresses? Not enough units being introduced to remove them from these services I think. Also 313's to remain on South Coast with perhaps some additional units from Moorgate line

 

[talldave]

Just standing at Gatwick listening to water ****ing out from under a 442; I think being recycled into baked bean tins is the best option!

 

[ModernRailways]

Congratulations to Govia!

Always enjoyed Southern, they are certainly one of the better TOCs out there in my view. They may not be loved by commuters, but which TOC is?

Good to see there is going to be quite a good bit of investment into services, although no doubt people will start moaning that the North should be getting some of these benefits too.

 

[jon0844]

When will we be able to see what the other bidders offered? It would be good to discuss our thoughts on who should have won!

Personally I'm a bit disappointed First lost it, but Southern had a good reputation and it's perhaps a bit unfair when you combine franchise areas and a good operator HAS to lose no matter what.

 

[JamesRowden]

Not complaining about the current stock and indeed it does the job well and is a lot more comfortable that the elctric stock; I also can't see electricfication in the immediate future either. However the problem is overcrowding on the peak services, and there is a plan by Network Rail to lengthen platforms on the Uckfield Line to 10 coaches. However there's no point doing that unless there is additional rolling stock to run 10 coach trains!

Not a particular worry as most days I get a seat, but it would be good not to have to get to Londondon Bridge at 17.45 to be sure of a seat on the 18.08 departure!

The interactive maps show for Uckfield:

An extra 50% capacity into London Bridge during the morning peak and a 40% increase in the evening peak

http://maps.dft.gov.uk/tsgn/index.html#

It does not show this message for any other locations. I would guess that this means that extra self-powered stock will be acquired but that the deal for them hasn't been completed yet.

 

[Deepgreen]

Another press release that tries to convince us that Go-Ahead are making a huge investment in capacity - when this is actually Network Rail-funded. FGW are doing the same thing at present with their marketing campaign, where they imply that they are putting £7.5bn into 'their' network, when, again, most of it comes from NR. I am surprised the Advertising Standards Authority haven't acted on that one.

 

[Stats]

Won't 442's be retained for Brighton expresses? Not enough units being introduced to remove them from these services I think.

From December 2015 the off-peak Brighton expresses will be extensions of the Gatwick Express services (2tph). I do wonder what the CEO of Gatwick Airport thinks about more Gatwick Express trains being extended to Brighton when they were calling for the return of a dedicated service. Still at least they got the return of on-board ticketing.

 

[hwl]

Won't 442's be retained for Brighton expresses? Not enough units being introduced to remove them from these services I think. Also 313's to remain on South Coast with perhaps some additional units from Moorgate line

Plenty of 377s even after 25 units going to southeastern...
Thameslink 700s will be taking over from Southern 377s on some services when they swap to going through the core and ex-FCC 377/2 and /5s on Thameslink so more than enough to cover the entire current Gatex fleet.

 

[TEW]

Won't 442's be retained for Brighton expresses? Not enough units being introduced to remove them from these services I think. Also 313's to remain on South Coast with perhaps some additional units from Moorgate line

The number of 442s working on Brighton services is minimal. It's a handful of services on weekday mornings and then a fair number on weekday evenings. They are exclusively worked by units which have either come off or are going on to the Brighton Gatwick Express services. Covering the small number of 442 workings to Brighton with either the new fleet or 377s shouldn't be problematic.

 

[petersi]

The interactive map for King's lynn claims "More Modern air conditioned trains replace current units"
This to me suggests it will not be refurbished 365's

With the refurbished 365's have airconditioning ?
If they do its probably a typo.

 

[jon0844]

A lot of people wrongly think 365s have air conditioning. Some because the cabs do, others because of the hopper vents inside.

I'm including FCC staff here, not just Joe Bloggs on the street.

I would hope that this wasn't a mistake, and it can't even include retrofitting aircon either (which isn't happening with the current refurbishment work) as it says replacement units.

Perhaps the plan is to have a more uniform fleet and cascade the 365s? If that's the case, that's going to be a big discussion point in itself!