If you think waving goodbye to 60% of your market is good business then no I wont come to your shop! It is the railway/Scottish Government that wouldn't do the deal not Stena and that is what is bonkers.
Where did you get '60%' from?!
I can't understand your issue with the data. The point I was making was that the numbers were growing in contrast to Stena's which were declining. I never said that VOLUMES were large. But there again the volume of people using rail is tiny as a proportion of total journeys is it not? So using your argument why invest in rail?
I'm not sure you understand why you're using some data, or even how you're contributing to this thread. If you do want to make a point, I'd start off by contributing with some modern statistics, not ones which are over six years and make absolutely no difference to what is happening today. I struggle to take someone seriously not only if they can't make relevant contributions but also when they call themselves "Sammy the seal".
To start you off,
here's an article with some figures which should help:
[In the first year of operations at Cairnryan]: "Stena Line have seen the new route deliver a strong nine per cent year on year increase in passenger numbers and a 60 percent increase in freight volumes."
We also find a comment on rail & sail:
"The numbers using the rail-link bus are slightly down compared with when we had the direct train service from Stranraer, however this is in line with our expectations. The Express coach services have been the main beneficiaries of this traffic and have increased their schedule and capacity as a result, he added."
So it transpires that people would rather use the likes of Citylink because they don't have to change coaches, which is fair enough. It's not that passengers have been lost since the move, they have changed their mode of transport. Though, the journey time is not much different - the one through coach from Edinburgh, say takes about the same time to Cairnryan as two trains and a coach does.
Speaking of the coach...
Pardon my ignorance, but why will it be faster to disembark at Girvan station, re-embark on a coach and drive to the ferry than it would be to stay on the train to Stranraer? Is there some kind of speed restriction on the rest of the line or summat?
The railway from Girvan to Stranraer is 37 miles long and takes 50 minutes (not including transfer to the port).
The road from Girvan to Cairnryan is 23 miles and takes 35 minutes by coach.
So, it's clearly a lot quicker to bus at least as far as Girvan.
Such an hourly service [from Ayr to Girvan] would vastly increase usage if experience elsewhere is anything to go by - indeed with electrification you could even make the Girvan train an extension of the hourly Edinburgh - Ayr service just announced!
Has this been formally predicted though? Usage on an hourly Ayr - Girvan service could well increase, but it's definitely not guaranteed I'd have thought.
Depending on the timing of this service, the ferry link coach may well just be better running to Ayr if connections are better timed there.
I've done the journey twice since the port moved to Cairnryan, at Christmas.
Herein I think lies your problem, as I suspected. Your experiences regarding this service are based purely on travelling at only one and the busiest time of year. You cannot surely comment accurately and reliably on this service as a whole, during the rest of the year, if you have not travelled during that period of time. It is not possible to infer accurate conclusions, as you are doing, when in fact you haven't actually experienced it first hand. It's like me saying, I visited Brighton beach once, and it was absolutely packed. It was during the summer that I went and I assume it must be like that all year round.
Yes but it is very slow to get that many passengers on a conventional style coach, where they all have to put their luggage in the boot, then board one by one. It can take half an hour just to get everybody on! It can also take 5 or 10 minutes to get out of the carpark at Ayr station and out onto the A77 out the town, if there's busy traffic.
A coach has one door, allowing one passenger to access at a time.
It's always going to be slower to board than a train carriage with multiple doors.
Also the passengers have to hand their luggage to the driver one at a time for him to stow it in the baggage compartment.
Also, at Ayr, all this has to take place in the carpark with no cover from the rain!
I've been there, in the rain, taking close to half an hour to get everyone one. It was dire.
(Do passengers load their own luggage or not?)
In your limited experience then, it may well have taken that long. Travel during the rest of the year and you'll find, as others have said, that you would not get the same thing happening. Coaches are rarely as busy as they are at Christmas, neither do passengers boarding take an average of 30 seconds to do so.
By your observations, it is quicker to load a vehicle with multiple doors than it is a coach with one. I'd also like to advise that, unlike your seasonal experience, at other times of the year, passengers are not all trying to board at the same time. So this doesn't happen.
I'd also wager that you've never seen how long it takes National Express coaches to load, or indeed Citylink/Ulsterbus services at the ferry terminals. Next time you make the journey to/from Belfast by boat I hope it isn't at Christmas, I also hope you see that it doesn't take other coach operators half an hour (and as you will see, as I said above, their services are a lot busier!)
You said also that it took you 90 minutes to make this journey. Again, make this journey more frequently and at other times of the year, as myself and others have done, and you will see what we mean when we claim that 70-75 minutes is actually the norm - including leaving Ayr during the evening rush hour.
If instead they can get by rail to Stranraer station, they could be shuttled to the Cairnryan ferry port (a mere 6 miles away) on multiple airport-style shuttle busses, which have several big doors and oodles of luggage space inside, so passengers all just barge on in the space of a couple of minutes.
This isn't an airport operation. While taking longer than the direct route, I'm not sure it would even be very comfortable? Also, are those buses publically road legal?
Moreover, whilst the A77 may in principle be "straighter" than the line to Girvan > Stranraer, it is still the sort of road that has a lot of bends and hills, and it's single carriageway, and a big coach can't realisitically go faster than about 45 mph on it. Traffic is often moving in queues on that road if any slow vehicle gets in the way.
It's not all single carriageway. The coach does go faster than 45 mph, though the speed limit I think is not much higher at 60.