Are all of the HSTs going before the 804s arrive though?
I thought that it'd be the ex-GC ones leaving in the next year but not *all* HSTs? Or am I getting confused, given that there are various people claiming to be in the know talking about ex-LNER sets coming across etc? Could it be that all of the ex-EMT HSTs go (i.e. all of the ex-GC and all of the current full length ones) but some ex-LNER ones will be running up to the introduction of the 804s (given that the LNER ones are more complaint? Or have things changed again?
I thought it might be helpful to summarize what (I think) the consensus is, and the key talking points.
1. Now: current EMR HST fleet quickly dumped in favour of ex-LNER
2. May 2020: ex-HT 180s arrive, and a presumably few ex-LNER HSTs are withdrawn (or fleet utilisation falls further)
3. Dec 2020: Timetable recast, 360s on Corby, all ex LNER HSTs stopped, the EMR IC timetable is delivered solely 27*222 and 4*180
4. Dec 2022: 804s introduced. EMR fleet is solely 33*5-car 804s.
(222s sent elsewhere eg XC, 180s sold to Whirlpool and recycled as tumble dryers).
The first main concern is about service reliability & resilience from Dec-2020 until 804s arrive, given the 180s not known for reliability. Will there be chronic cancellations and short-forming?
Secondly there are concerns about whether there will be enough capacity after Dec 2020 particularly where 2+8 HSTs might be replaced by 5 coach trains (whether 222 or the 804s) Will there be enough units to run in multiple where demand is there, and if demand grows.
The reasons why this isn't a simple calculation are
1- electrification will reduce demand on IC services on South MML, so less IC capacity is needed
2- EMR fleet utilisation is currently low, due to having multiple (sub)fleets of different length 222 and HST, and these fleet changes will enable more effective and intensive use of a smaller fleet.