Wales & Borders Franchise Consultation

[ChooChooChloe]

Indeed! Thanks

 

[Llanigraham]

Geez, am I on trial or something? Heaven forbid I have an opinion!

No, but you have robustly condemned ATW on what has so far appeared to be VERY dubious grounds and a complete lack of actual facts.
As you might realise some of us use their services very often and have a very different view to yours.

 

[PHILIPE]

Central Trains had a no-growth franchise too, so they make an interesting comparison.

CT: ordered a 33-strong fleet of 170s. Shared 30 350s with Silverlink.

ATW: no new units.

CT: repeatedly cut off-peak fares to grow ridership.

ATW: nope. Some of the most extortionate regional fares in Britain, and some pretty unjustifiable pricing anomalies too.

I use the Marches Line frequently (and services from Gloucester and along the South Wales main line infrequently). They are pretty much the most unpleasant services I travel on, in terms of crowding, high prices, inconvenient timetabling and poor-quality stock. Maybe elsewhere they're better, but my real-world experience is that ATW - despite some excellent on-the-ground staff - has been run as a don't-give-a-**** operation comparable to the old Thames Trains or, guess what, today's CrossCountry.

ATW have always worked to the franchise spec. Nothing more, nothing less. That was their contract. If anything additional has been introduced the Welsh Government have been behind it or perhaps ATW have squeezed resources to avoid any costs.

 

[Doctor Fegg]

I use the Marches Line quite often. Can't remember the last time I had to stand. Haven't noticed the fares being out of kilter with other operators. A basic hourly service along the Crewe - Cardiff section (plus 2hourly Shrewsbury - Cardiff) is miles better than what it was historically. And "poor quality stock"? Really? 175s - perhaps the most comfortable DMUs in existence! (Though they could do with a refurb and some TLC)

The service at the station I travel to most frequently, Church Stretton, is full of gaps at times people want to travel - partly, though not entirely, thanks to the recent botched changes on the HoWL (see threads here passim). The fare from my local station to Marches Line stations has a £23 leap between two stations eight miles apart. Standing is fairly common in my experience on Sundays, when the service goes down to 1tp2h - absolutely pitiful for a town whose main business is walking tourism.

175s are ok, although greatly underspecced for luggage storage given that they're used on airport services - the supposed bike space is often overflowing with suitcases - but the 14Xs from Gloucester are an embarrassment, as are the 150s that still creep out onto Marches services (such as the 21.55 from Cardiff, which I catch now and then).

I wouldn't dispute that it's possible to have a good travelling experience on ATW and clearly some people do. But it's not a universal experience, and the rabid "no criticism of ATW is valid" attitudes of a couple of posters in this thread smacks a bit of Stockholm Syndrome. Well, perhaps another Syndrome...

 

[Doctor Fegg]

ATW have always worked to the franchise spec. Nothing more, nothing less. That was their contract.

Right. Whereas the much-reviled CT went above and beyond their franchise spec, making CT a more forward-thinking operator than ATW in that regard. That was my point.

 

[philjo]

The service at the station I travel to most frequently, Church Stretton, is full of gaps at times people want to travel - partly, though not entirely, thanks to the recent botched changes on the HoWL (see threads here passim). The fare from my local station to Marches Line stations has a £23 leap between two stations eight miles apart. Standing is fairly common in my experience on Sundays, when the service goes down to 1tp2h - absolutely pitiful for a town whose main business is walking tourism.

175s are ok, although greatly underspecced for luggage storage given that they're used on airport services - the supposed bike space is often overflowing with suitcases ....

I totally agree. I often spend a few days walking in Church Stretton, admittedly usually around bank holidays. To get there in time for a Friday afternoon walk I usually get the 09:07 from Euston and change at Crewe onto the 11:08 which is always a 2-coach service and often jammed with luggage. a few times the entrance to one of the coaches is just a large unstable pile of luggage and had had to fight my way to the doorway with my case to get off at Church Stretton on a few occasions. Not helped that if I get an advance ticket from Euston I don't get a reserved seat on ATW - only a counted place.

there are a few erratic stopping patterns along that line meaning that there are a couple of services close together then a long gap at Church Stretton, particularly in the afternoons. when the service are quieter, they are nice comfortable units but the 2 coach units really need to be run in pairs or at least just use 3-coach units on the Manchester runs.

 

[tbtc]

ATW have always worked to the franchise spec. Nothing more, nothing less. That was their contract. If anything additional has been introduced the Welsh Government have been behind it or perhaps ATW have squeezed resources to avoid any costs.

Given how heavily subsidised the Wales & Borders service is, that's the best that any TOC is going to do.

What matters more is the contract that the Government(s) tie the TOC to - if existing services require a subsidy of forty (?) pence per mile then don't be too surprised if the TOC doesn't want to risk investing money that they don't have to. You can have improved services, but you'll need to get the chequebook out (e.g. finding the money for the "WAG Express"). They've tried to make some commercial improvements but it's maybe telling that these are far from Cardiff (the plan for through services from Aberystwyth to Marylebone, bidding for paths to Manchester Airport, extending Shrewsbury services beyond New Street to Birmingham International).

TBH I don't blame Arriva for deciding that the new franchise isn't worth the candle. You are a convenient whipping boy for lack of investment, you get pelters for anything that goes wrong, but there seems to be no clear direction from the Stakeholders who should be paying for improvements

Nobody wants to take a decision about light rail on the Valley Lines (with driver controlled doors and all that comes with it).

Some politicians are more interested in playing with crayons (e.g. prioritising a railway from Carmarthen to Aberystwyth) than dealing with tough issues facing everyday passengers.

There's the faction who want an hourly Holyhead - Cardiff service... no arguing with such types.

There's aspiration for a "not for profit" TOC but nothing concrete.

Someone needs to decide whether money in south Wales should fund the M4 or the railways - and the decision to remove tolls over the Severn may increase road traffic sufficiently to tip that balance in favour of road.

Plus some people in England seem to think that services should be improved on their side of the border too.

It's going to be hard to squeeze more services onto existing infrastructure, given the need to fit paths at English bottlenecks (Manchester Piccadilly, the flat crossing at Crewe, Wolverhampton to New Street) and the single track sections in Wales (HOWL, Cambrian, Wrexham, Pembrokeshire), given how interworked and co-ordinated services are - and the fact that you can have a three coach 175 carting empty seats to Milford Haven whilst a two coach 175 struggles to cope with demand out of Manchester Piccadilly because it takes over twelve hours to cycle round the route back to Piccadilly. So it'd be hard to simply increase capacity at the busier end of the route because any extra seats at the Manchester end won't stay at the Manchester end for long.

The Marches line looks relatively lucrative, but the AIUI long distance fares are cheaper that way (like the S&C), which means less revenue for the TOC.

You're going to have to deal with disruption as they electrify Cardiff Central but it won't bring any benefit to W&B services as there are no plans to wire west of Cardiff any more.

Add in relatively low profit margins and I'm not sure I'd pick the Wales & Borders franchise out as a particularly lucrative one. Too many people squabbling over the purse strings (Westminster, Cardiff Bay, factions within Wales), not enough money to pay for half of the "wishlist" of improvements, a lot of people who are happy to pass the buck to the hapless TOC. Either give me a TOC with one clear organisation in charge (like ScotRail) or one where there's less political hassle so you can get on with the day job (like the EMT replacement).

 

[Kite159]

Why do I get a feeling another one of the three remaining candidates will drop out before the ITT becomes public?

(One fault with 175s I find is the overhead luggage racks are rubbish to putting bags in)

 

[387star]

It is easy to see why Stagecoach are regarded more highly as even EMT refurbished all their trains internally and run ex BR DMUS... was that in their contract?

Arriva have to my knowledge never refurbished all their trains but adopt a 'that will do' approach and do things very piecemeal

I don't buy the fact the voyagers can't have new interior decor because of DDA legislation for example

Haven't 142s gone around for years with valley lines interiors from the 90s?

 

[gareth950]

Why do I get a feeling another one of the three remaining candidates will drop out before the ITT becomes public?

(One fault with 175s I find is the overhead luggage racks are rubbish to putting bags in)

The ITT is never going to be made public. We won't get any details of what TfW / Welsh Govt has specified until the announcement of the final award is made.
And yes, I agree, another bidder probably will drop out. The mess over the transfer of the Valley lines from Network Rail or not, Valley lines light rail plans or not, the seemingly impossible task of meeting the 2020 PRM deadline, the M4 relief road sucking up all of the Welsh Govt's transport infrastructure budget or not, etc and so on, have not helped.

 

[gareth950]

It is easy to see why Stagecoach are regarded more highly as even EMT refurbished all their trains internally and run ex BR DMUS... was that in their contract?

Arriva have to my knowledge never refurbished all their trains but adopt a 'that will do' approach and do things very piecemeal

I don't buy the fact the voyagers can't have new interior decor because of DDA legislation for example

Haven't 142s gone around for years with valley lines interiors from the 90s?

143s have in the green and red interior colour scheme, 142s had their bus seats stripped out by ATW and replaced, but retained the interior green panelling.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Very surprising to see the incumbent pull out! Do Arriva know / have a feeling about something that the rest of us don't?

As for the Arriva bashing, some of it is justified and some of it isn't. Certainly one big issue I have with the, is the fact they very much seem to stick to the franchise spec and nothing more. Ask them why there is such a poor Sunday service on the valley lines, or why there isn't a NYD service for example, and at least when I have done that in the past all they could answer was "it isn't in the franchise spec so we don't have to do it". Some of the other issues people have though (infrastructure, trains etc) aren't really ATW's fault at all, it is just the hand the franchise has been dealt. Although I can fully understand people having a go at them because they are the public face (and tbh most "normal" people won't know what is ATW and what is Network Rail / DfT anyway). I guess it also doesn't help when passengers see two carriage trains on some peak services but then four carriage trains on off peak quiet services!

 

[craigybagel]

The service at the station I travel to most frequently, Church Stretton, is full of gaps at times people want to travel - partly, though not entirely, thanks to the recent botched changes on the HoWL (see threads here passim).

The timetable change on the HOWL wasn't ATW's doing - the WAG wanted an extra service without any extra trains to run them.

175s are ok, although greatly underspecced for luggage storage given that they're used on airport services - the supposed bike space is often overflowing with suitcases - but the 14Xs from Gloucester are an embarrassment, as are the 150s that still creep out onto Marches services (such as the 21.55 from Cardiff, which I catch now and then).

The 2155 is a necessary evil - you need to get 150s between the South and the North somehow. At least they use a very quiet train to do so - very few (often none) spend more than an hour on that train.

I wouldn't dispute that it's possible to have a good travelling experience on ATW and clearly some people do. But it's not a universal experience, and the rabid "no criticism of ATW is valid" attitudes of a couple of posters in this thread smacks a bit of Stockholm Syndrome. Well, perhaps another Syndrome...

I'd like to think that those who've given reasons for their criticisms of ATW, like yourself, have been debated with fairly - what I and a number of other posters have issues with is people criticising ATW based on very limited experiences, or celebrating today's news as though it's really going to make a big improvement to their future when most likely it won't.

 

[CapitalStar378]

Arriva have run a pretty good railway during their franchise but they haven't made any extra effort to make improvements. They have stuck rigidly to their franchise obligations and not done very much else.

I'm amazed that there are some lines within Cardiff and the Valleys with two hourly services on Sundays and some with none at all. Most enhancements to services, frequencies and extra rolling stock have been paid for by the Welsh Government, and they have no current responsibility to fund the railways. Network Rail seem to have avoided paying up.

Bit of a mess really, lets hope it gets a lot better with the new franchise (as long as someone wants it!).

 

[Bwlch y Groes]

My gut feeling when I saw this was that Arriva have withdrawn because the trams are coming

That's a totally uneducated assumption, of course. And I am an eternal pessimist. But something tells me that they are jumping ship because they don't want to get involved in what's coming, because it's not going to be pretty. I have absolutely no faith in Skates to make the right decision here

I have always expected Abellio to win, though, ever since I saw that their bid was being fronted by a former Welsh Labour MP. That just seemed too convenient

 

[XCTurbostar]

[Deleted]

 

[Bletchleyite]

Former DLR stock?

 

[whhistle]

As I said, Stagecoach would never tolerate it.

I mean, you have seen the state of the Meridians right?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I mean, you have seen the state of the Meridians right?

Not great but nowhere near as bad as the 175s or unrefurbed 150s.

 

[313103]

I have always expected Abellio to win, though, ever since I saw that their bid was being fronted by a former Welsh Labour MP. That just seemed too convenient

I think the appointment of TJ as MD i am inclined to think Keolis will get the keys. Especially as he came from a Keolis group company.

 

[Gareth Marston]

you might be surprised with what is proposed.

Welsh Labour/Welsh Government have a deep seated cultural problem in that they want the Powers, they want more £ budget, they want to take the plaudits for success but don't want to accept any responsibility if things go wrong. Having worked for Welsh Government for 10.5 years your comments ring true. "Transfer of risk" is what the self proclaimed clever people in Government service want, if this has just become too unbearable for Arriva and is the reason they've baled then the other bidders must be close to jacking it in as well.

A lot of business in Wales will try their hardest to have nothing to do with Welsh Government as the don't want the hassle and distraction of trying to deal with them, throw in the mix the squabbling with DfT, political trains rather than trains that are commercial or serving community's all for a low margin who wants the hassle?

 

[Gareth Marston]

My gut feeling when I saw this was that Arriva have withdrawn because the trams are coming

That's a totally uneducated assumption, of course. And I am an eternal pessimist. But something tells me that they are jumping ship because they don't want to get involved in what's coming, because it's not going to be pretty. I have absolutely no faith in Skates to make the right decision here

I have always expected Abellio to win, though, ever since I saw that their bid was being fronted by a former Welsh Labour MP. That just seemed too convenient

Arriva were carting around an ex Labour AM in their bid team as well.

 

[Gareth Marston]

The ITT is never going to be made public. We won't get any details of what TfW / Welsh Govt has specified until the announcement of the final award is made.
And yes, I agree, another bidder probably will drop out. The mess over the transfer of the Valley lines from Network Rail or not, Valley lines light rail plans or not, the seemingly impossible task of meeting the 2020 PRM deadline, the M4 relief road sucking up all of the Welsh Govt's transport infrastructure budget or not, etc and so on, have not helped.

A lot of the problem is WG have talked big and then when its come to crunch time made no commitment to fund £ given all the above.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Welsh Labour/Welsh Government have a deep seated cultural problem in that they want the Powers, they want more £ budget, they want to take the plaudits for success but don't want to accept any responsibility if things go wrong. Having worked for Welsh Government for 10.5 years your comments ring true.

To be fair that sounds true of any government, be it in Wales of the UK as a whole!

 

[Dai Corner]

So what happens if two more bidders drop out, leaving just one? They would be in a position to say " Here's the bill take it or leave it"

Or if nobody bids in the end?

 

[Dai Corner]

A lot of the problem is WG have talked big and then when its come to crunch time made no commitment to fund £ given all the above.

And they have (or soon will have) tax raising and borrowing powers so blaming Westminster for not giving them as much pocket money as those countries in the north will be much harder.

 

[Doctor Fegg]

The timetable change on the HOWL wasn't ATW's doing - the WAG wanted an extra service without any extra trains to run them.

All fair points (hadn't appreciated the issue about the late-night 150 in particular - not sure it'll be great comfort next time I connect out of a lovely comfortable Cotswold Line HST!).

But as a lowly passenger, not privy to the discussions in Cardiff or wherever, it appears that ATW appears to settle for whatever WG/DfT gives it. Plenty of franchises, from the very first ones onwards, have gone beyond their commitments or negotiated with their paymasters for a better deal. FGW/GWR is a good case in point - there was no compulsion for them to bring back five Adelantes, for example, and DfT is famously sniffy about franchises taking on additional liabilities; but FGW made the case, and eventually got them.

In ATW's case, I've never seen any external evidence of that happening. Maybe management have been working tirelessly behind the scenes to get a better deal for their customers, and they've been rebuffed every time by the dragons in Cardiff, but it doesn't show. Maybe they did try to fight for a better deal for Church Stretton/Craven Arms passengers with the HoWL changes. Or maybe they're just simply not as good at negotiating as GWR et al...?

 

[daikilo]

So what happens if two more bidders drop out, leaving just one? They would be in a position to say " Here's the bill take it or leave it"

Or if nobody bids in the end?

If nobody bids, ATW will be asked to continue, which they can either accept or refuse unless there is an extension clause in their current franchise. I am guessing DOR steps in if they refuse.

I think the issue may become that there are bids but none are compliant, in which case I guess there will be a round/s of negotiation to see if something adequate is achievable, assuming the lawyers allow it.

I also guess that ATW will be ready to provide an explanation as to why they have withdrawn, which in itself could lead to the ITT being withdrawn if ATW believe that, say, a part of the ITT is insolvable.

 

[HH]

Arriva pulling out is an huge surprise, particularly as they were reported as having part-funded the lease on the micro-fleet of 769s into the early 2020s and SARPA's latest newsletter had Abellio and Arriva as the only two bidders still in the running. From various comments earlier in this topic (and maybe other topics/fourms), I can think of three possible reasons for Arriva pulling out:

1. They are expecting a direct award and therefore it isn't worth them sinking any more funds in bidding, since a new contest will follow the direct award
2. The Welsh Government / Transport For Wales is asking for something that Arriva does not want to offer in their bid, because they consider it too high risk
3. Similar to (2.), Arriva consider the partial vertical integration of the south Wales metro too high risk

Possible reasons for a direct award could be a further delay to devolution of the franchising powers or the issue of Pacer replacement and TSI-PRM compliance for the class 153 and mark 3 fleets.

Possibly it's simply that the potential rewards are seen as too low for the amount of risk and management attention required. Or that they think their relationship with the Welsh government is so bad that they have no chance of winning. There is no Direct Award on the table.

 

[U-Bahnfreund]

Will the bidder of the railway franchise also operate the light rail / tram lines or is that going to be someone else? This whole Metro project seems a bit unstructured to me (someone who hasn't read the last 45 pages).