Wales & Borders Franchise Consultation

[HH]

If nobody bids, ATW will be asked to continue, which they can either accept or refuse unless there is an extension clause in their current franchise. I am guessing DOR steps in if they refuse.

I think the issue may become that there are bids but none are compliant, in which case I guess there will be a round/s of negotiation to see if something adequate is achievable, assuming the lawyers allow it.

I also guess that ATW will be ready to provide an explanation as to why they have withdrawn, which in itself could lead to the ITT being withdrawn if ATW believe that, say, a part of the ITT is insolvable.

Is everyone unaware that this is not a standard bidding situation?

There will be negotiations until an acceptable bid is achieved, as I read the smoke signals.

 

[Severn40]

All fair points (hadn't appreciated the issue about the late-night 150 in particular - not sure it'll be great comfort next time I connect out of a lovely comfortable Cotswold Line HST!).

But as a lowly passenger, not privy to the discussions in Cardiff or wherever, it appears that ATW appears to settle for whatever WG/DfT gives it. Plenty of franchises, from the very first ones onwards, have gone beyond their commitments or negotiated with their paymasters for a better deal. FGW/GWR is a good case in point - there was no compulsion for them to bring back five Adelantes, for example, and DfT is famously sniffy about franchises taking on additional liabilities; but FGW made the case, and eventually got them.

In ATW's case, I've never seen any external evidence of that happening. Maybe management have been working tirelessly behind the scenes to get a better deal for their customers, and they've been rebuffed every time by the dragons in Cardiff, but it doesn't show. Maybe they did try to fight for a better deal for Church Stretton/Craven Arms passengers with the HoWL changes. Or maybe they're just simply not as good at negotiating as GWR et al...?

I'm also a lowly ATW passenger as well and have to say I am not upset that they have chosen to pull out of the tender. Yes - they delivered to the contract but did the bare minimum wherever possible.

The fact the Welsh Government had to shell out a few years ago for the interior refurb of the 158s confirmed the company's lack of commitment. The company wasn't great at customer care either - the culture of heavy ticket checks (for example, it is not uncommon to have your ticket checked three times on a 15 minute journey between Newport and Cardiff Central), poor information during service cancellations or significant delays and dirty train interiors.

I too have reservations about the Welsh Government at handling the whole franchise renewal. They have made a major error in not publishing the ITT particularly in managing expectations of the public. Then again, the Welsh Government is obsessed with press releases and spin but are never good at being accountable for when things go wrong - lazily shifting the blame invariably to Westminster or someone else.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Of course the elephant that might be in the room no one has mentioned is an internal shift in policy or problem @ Arriva / DB.

Whether or not Arriva are the problem, part of the problem or a symptom of the problem is now history one thing they wont be is the solution. There now can't be public disquiet from the average Shwni about awarding the new franchise to Arriva so the link of blame to the current operator is broken which is not good news if your TfW/WG as the "clean sheet"in the public's mind will see more public expectation. I dare say this will be a hard one for the spin doctors.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

BBC Wales last night said it had an expert who would say why Arriva has withdrawn, but actually had no insight whatsoever.
One possibility is that Northern will need a lot of management time over the next few years.
Back at ATW, I was on Gerald southbound today.
Total complement between Shrewsbury and Hereford was 40, with 3 in Business.
Dodgy economics, but excellent seat and on-board service.

 

[Gareth Marston]

BBC Wales last night said it had an expert who would say why Arriva has withdrawn, but actually had no insight whatsoever.
One possibility is that Northern will need a lot of management time over the next few years.
Back at ATW, I was on Gerald southbound today.
Total complement between Shrewsbury and Hereford was 40, with 3 in Business.
Dodgy economics, but excellent seat and on-board service.

The scenario whereby the WG is only offering a small percentage fixed fee but also insisting on the franchise holder running services that are damaging commercially i.e hourly Holyhead to Cardiff trains could be a factor also. Any commercially minded operator is going to scream at this vision as its goes against where people want to go. A two hourly service from Bristol to Liverpool via the Marches would hit the mark in terms of revenue increase.

 

[FordFocus]

I had a recent discussion with colleagues about the state of future franchising in the UK and how it seems that bidding for franchises is been met with more caution. Recent events include Stagecoach having issues about "overbidding" on the East Coast franchise. Govia having their problems on GTR although that's mostly down to government interference. South West Railway only having Stagecoach and First bidding for it. Franchises been bided on the assumption of revenue growth year on year that isn't materialising. The lessons learnt from "no growth" franchises like Abellio/Serco for Northern and ATW been a poor deal for passengers but great for parent companies that made a decent return. Finally, National Express that had Central, Midland Mainline, c2c have disappeared.

If WG put too many restrictions to bidders as suggested by a couple of other posters and want the TOC to take full risk I can't really blame Arriva for bailing out. In particular when there are three other bidders that have the ability to out bid Arriva.

I'm told that bidding for franchise involves setting up a team of staff to bid for franchises and involves external consultancy companies (Mr P. Wilkinson formerly of First Class Partnerships) that costs millions in total, best to cut losses and go for the bigger fish?

 

[PR1Berske]

ATW WiFi gets a tick from me

 

[Bellbell]

The company wasn't great at customer care either - the culture of heavy ticket checks (for example, it is not uncommon to have your ticket checked three times on a 15 minute journey between Newport and Cardiff Central), poor information during service cancellations or significant delays and dirty train interiors.

Do you mean the guard would check your ticket three times or do you mean you'd go through the gateline at Newport and Cardiff and also have your ticket checked once on the train?

 

[Gareth Marston]

I had a recent discussion with colleagues about the state of future franchising in the UK and how it seems that bidding for franchises is been met with more caution. Recent events include Stagecoach having issues about "overbidding" on the East Coast franchise. Govia having their problems on GTR although that's mostly down to government interference. South West Railway only having Stagecoach and First bidding for it. Franchises been bided on the assumption of revenue growth year on year that isn't materialising. The lessons learnt from "no growth" franchises like Abellio/Serco for Northern and ATW been a poor deal for passengers but great for parent companies that made a decent return. Finally, National Express that had Central, Midland Mainline, c2c have disappeared.

If WG put too many restrictions to bidders as suggested by a couple of other posters and want the TOC to take full risk I can't really blame Arriva for bailing out. In particular when there are three other bidders that have the ability to out bid Arriva.

I'm told that bidding for franchise involves setting up a team of staff to bid for franchises and involves external consultancy companies (Mr P. Wilkinson formerly of First Class Partnerships) that costs millions in total, best to cut losses and go for the bigger fish?

Given how long Arriva have had their hat in the ring its inconceivable that they've not already sunk a heft sum into it which makes them pulling out at this stage even more suspicious.

 

[Simon11]

Having and still working for National Express here, we didn't even consider bidding for ATW due to the risk levels and not being backed by reasonable returns.

Replacing trains with conductors/guards with DOO is now suicidal in the UK for any bidder and this alone is a good reason to leave this bid/ rail market when the government puts this in the ITT!

 

[daikilo]

If the scenario of an initial franchise extension means they will need to negotiate it, conceptually I could see them deciding they only have the resource to do that short term, which possibly means with DfT and not WG.

 

[emoaconr]

Having grown up in North Wales and been subject to First North Western, Wales & Borders and Central Trains, I have to say that if Arriva Trains Wales offered anything during its time, it was greater stability and clearer organisation. I've lived in North Wales, South Wales and I live in Merseyside now, but each region has its own shortcomings.

I, more than anyone, understand the problems with ATW. Try catching a North Wales Coast service to Chester when Chester Races is on, and you'll see what people mean ("sardine can" is an understatement). Reliability on the NW coast was often an issue when I lived in Colwyn Bay and many people were always quick to blame ATW for "not putting enough carriages on". Delays of 30-40 minutes are regular on the Wrexham-Bidston line and minor delays are almost always expected. Stations such as Shotton and Llandudno Junction offer poorly timed connections. When I lived down South, the issue lay with the popularity of the commuter Valley Lines services at peak times and the unreliability of the rolling stock. The Cardiff-Swansea-Carmarthen-West Wales services were simply a no-go in rush hour. Sunday services are generally below expectations throughout the franchise area.

But beneath all of this, I fully comprehend that ATW has been dealt a bad hand in the first place. Of course the franchise spec is let on a no-growth premise, which is a nonstarter in the first place if the franchisee was ever to make any improvements. I generally think that ATW get that the franchise is flawed and that the lack of rolling stock is a huge barrier to any investment they wish to put in it. I generally see the W&B franchise as an improvement over FNW, CT and NX W&B. Coming from my perspective in Wrexham, the service Wrexham General receives today to a wider variety of long-distance termini is a world away from where we were in 2003. People can argue all day long about the appropriacy of the Cardiff-Holyhead and Birmingham-Holyhead bi-hourly services, but the reality is that these routes have enabled more joined-up thinking and economised what was already running into a single route anyway.

As for the rolling stock - we know the WAG paid for most of the refurbs on the 158s and 175s. ATW's 158s were some of the worst on the network before they were done. Also remember that right at the beginning of this franchise, ATW had to sublease a number of its 175s back to First North Western for TPE services, relying much more heavily on 150s, 153s and 158s for medium distance services. Hell, it was only just before the commencement of the ATW franchise that some FNW routes such as Wrexham-Bidston were run by 101s! The 175s were unreliable, there were stock shortages on the Valley lines and little consistency accross the network. The ATW franchise period has seen things become a lot more stable, consistent and joined-up.

I think the vast majority of ATW's staff work incredibly hard, and as I am now out of the ATW region, coming back onto an ATW train always feels homely and secure. ATW has predominately taken the franchise spec to the letter and this is a huge shortcoming for it and its reputation, but at the end of the day that is the fault of the political agreements that were made at the time. They could (and maybe some would argue, should) have spent more, but I'm sure given the mess of a franchise the SRA/WAG let on, any private company other than Arriva would have done as little as possible to sustain the contract they had signed. Out of the 'no growth' franchises, I would say that ATW has certainly come out as more unified and professional, rather than the off-cuts of three other franchises.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

B

Having and still working for National Express here, we didn't even consider bidding for ATW due to the risk levels and not being backed by reasonable returns.

Replacing trains with conductors/guards with DOO is now suicidal in the UK for any bidder and this alone is a good reason to leave this bid/ rail market when the government puts this in the ITT!

But, as I understand it, WG has ruled out DOO in the new franchise, and the Metro, so that can't be it.

 

[craigybagel]

Having and still working for National Express here, we didn't even consider bidding for ATW due to the risk levels and not being backed by reasonable returns.

Replacing trains with conductors/guards with DOO is now suicidal in the UK for any bidder and this alone is a good reason to leave this bid/ rail market when the government puts this in the ITT!

Indeed - although the WAG have publically at least stated they don't want DOO on any part of this franchise. Whether they follow through on this, and whether it's included in the hidden ITT that nobody is allowed to see remains to be seen.

 

[gareth950]

you might be surprised with what is proposed.

Are TfW / Welsh Govt / Ken Skates not aware that any new 3rd rail is effectively banned? I suppose it's a good way to discourage trespass and teach any cable thieves a lesson they won't forget.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Are TfW / Welsh Govt / Ken Skates not aware that any new 3rd rail is effectively banned? I suppose it's a good way to discourage trespass and teach any cable thieves a lesson they won't forget.

Shielded third rail (e.g. DLR style bottom contact) is not banned. I genuinely wonder if someone is going to propose ex-DLR EMUs when they switch to their fixed formation walk-through units as they plan to - many of them are quite new, and it wouldn't be a hugely complicated conversion to add cab partitions.

It's not like second hand DLR EMUs haven't been used before - the first lot got flogged to Germany and are still in service (in original livery, too).

They do ride like a cart, but then people are used to Pacers. And there's then a source of even more, newer ones on the horizon if, as I think is likely, TfL decide to standardise on the new walk through units throughout. It's all a bit D78, indeed - newish EMUs being retired because they're a bit awkward when they are nowhere near knackered.

 

[gareth950]

Shielded third rail (e.g. DLR style bottom contact) is not banned. I genuinely wonder if someone is going to propose ex-DLR EMUs when they switch to their fixed formation walk-through units as they plan to - many of them are quite new, and it wouldn't be a hugely complicated conversion to add cab partitions.

It's not like second hand DLR EMUs haven't been used before - the first lot got flogged to Germany and are still in service (in original livery, too).

They do ride like a cart, but then people are used to Pacers. And there's then a source of even more, newer ones on the horizon if, as I think is likely, TfL decide to standardise on the new walk through units throughout. It's all a bit D78, indeed - newish EMUs being retired because they're a bit awkward when they are nowhere near knackered.

Is DLR classed as light or heavy rail?

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Is DLR classed as light or heavy rail?

Light Rail - special rulebook etc applies .....

 

[gareth950]

Light Rail - special rulebook etc applies .....

Yes it's just twigged for me - DLR stands for Docklands Light Railway. It's been a very long day.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Yes it's just twigged for me - DLR stands for Docklands Light Railway. It's been a very long day.

Sorry, my fault, should per Forum rules have written it out in full the first time.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Yes it's just twigged for me - DLR stands for Docklands Light Railway. It's been a very long day.

Fair enough .....old technology all right , but it certainly works in the East End....incredibly reliable too. Never got my head round the blue signal aspects (and hand signals) ...!

 

[Bletchleyite]

Fair enough .....old technology all right , but it certainly works in the East End....incredibly reliable too. Never got my head round the blue signal aspects (and hand signals) ...!

Classic guard-only operation! (I know they are not quite the same as guards).

For the Valleys, if it were true, I'd expect to see them converted to regular driver/guard operation but with driver release.

 

[Gareth Marston]

There was a very strong negative reaction in the Stakeholder consultation against the D Trains - another sort of London cast off's solution will meet with the same results.

 

[Bletchleyite]

There was a very strong negative reaction in the Stakeholder consultation against the D Trains - another sort of London cast off's solution will meet with the same results.

I don't understand why people are so bothered about this. If I were in Northernland I'd rather swap all the (inadequate) new DMU and EMU orders for twice as many used EMUs and DEMU conversions with a decent interior refurb, and I think the economics would be about like that. Being able to go to 6 or 8-car operation as a matter of course out of Manchester in the peaks would be far more of a benefit than a fancy new 2-car DMU, which is what is going to happen due to the inadequate quantity. Same for Wales.

But then the UK has an obsession with new stuff - the car industry, too.

FWIW, just for balance, I wouldn't have objected if son-of-LM had bidded a fleet of Class 319s to replace the 350/2s provided it meant a complete end to 4-car running and all trains arriving at Euston between 0700-0930 and leaving between 1600-1930 were 12-car. (I'd envisage using used EMUs being cheap enough that you'd just take 4 off the 12-car sets and leave them at Camden, Northampton or Bletchley off-peak rather than needing to do anything clever).

 

[Gareth Marston]

I don't understand why people are so bothered about this. If I were in Northernland I'd rather swap all the (inadequate) new DMU and EMU orders for twice as many used EMUs and DEMU conversions with a decent interior refurb, and I think the economics would be about like that. Being able to go to 6 or 8-car operation as a matter of course out of Manchester in the peaks would be far more of a benefit than a fancy new 2-car DMU, which is what is going to happen due to the inadequate quantity. Same for Wales.

But then the UK has an obsession with new stuff - the car industry, too.

FWIW, just for balance, I wouldn't have objected if son-of-LM had bidded a fleet of Class 319s to replace the 350/2s provided it meant a complete end to 4-car running and all trains arriving at Euston between 0700-0930 and leaving between 1600-1930 were 12-car. (I'd envisage using used EMUs being cheap enough that you'd just take 4 off the 12-car sets and leave them at Camden, Northampton or Bletchley off-peak rather than needing to do anything clever).

You have to understand Valleys Stakeholder attitudes they think the area has been deliberately dis invested in by the Tory's closing everything in the 80's and then everything being thrown at Cardiff in the 90's and subsequently. Then there's pork barrel politics parts of the Valleys have gone Independent and Plaid (the Plaid leader Leanne Wood represents the Rhondda Valley) its not the always vote Labour stronghold it was. No matter how hard they try and deflect people will see that its Welsh Labour awarding the contract, the chain of balme to Arriva is now broken.

 

[gareth950]

There was a very strong negative reaction in the Stakeholder consultation against the D Trains - another sort of London cast off's solution will meet with the same results.

There's going to have to be some cast-offs from somewhere. Train services will cease on 1/1/2020 in most of Wales, esp South East Wales, otherwise. The 769s, which are London commuter cast-offs, are the ideal solution. Given a decent interior refurbishment and removal of original 3+2 seating with 2+2, Joe public will think they are new. Run on diesel until the wires are up, then electric when they are. With the glut of EMUs coming off lease soon, (319s, 321s, 323s, 360s) get the wires up first, then worry about new EMUs in 5-10 years time.

Which is best the Welsh Govt needs to ask? Make use of the glut of cast off EMUs that will soon be available and have permanent formation 4 car trains running up and down the valleys in 2 - 3 years time, continue with severe overcrowding as Pacers are being scrapped, or possibly services withdrawn in 2020.

 

[Dai Corner]

There's going to have to be some cast-offs from somewhere. Train services will cease on 1/1/2020 in most of Wales, esp South East Wales, otherwise. The 769s, which are London commuter cast-offs, are the ideal solution. Given a decent interior refurbishment and removal of original 3+2 seating with 2+2, Joe public will think they are new. Run on diesel until the wires are up, then electric when they are. With the glut of EMUs coming off lease soon, (319s, 321s, 323s, 360s) get the wires up first, then worry about new EMUs in 5-10 years time.

Which is best the Welsh Govt needs to ask? Make use of the glut of cast off EMUs that will soon be available and have permanent formation 4 car trains running up and down the valleys in 2 - 3 years time, continue with severe overcrowding as Pacers are being scrapped, or possibly services withdrawn in 2020.

Or get a derogation on the PRM mods, keep the Pacers and face the wrath of the disabled lobby.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Or get a derogation on the PRM mods, keep the Pacers and face the wrath of the disabled lobby.

I fear this is what we will see.

769s and 25kV electrification (over time) make absolutely perfect sense. Then once it's all wired in say 10 years time, a nice fleet of new EMUs to use said wires.

Fit them with Grammers (or if penny pinching ironing boards with the improved base) at a good pitch based around 6 rows in a full length centre section (the ex Thameslink 319s are like that and are quite spacious), plenty of tables, a nice colour scheme, and I can't see anyone disliking them.

I don't after all recall the last time I heard anyone whining about Merseyrail 50x[1], and those are even older. People in London probably dislike PEP EMUs with the original seats, but the Merseyrail ones are transformed. I bet most people don't even know they are 38ish years old now, as the design of the exterior is relatively timeless.

[1] The window view is a bit rubbish, I suppose, but commuters generally don't care about that.

 

[gareth950]

Or get a derogation on the PRM mods, keep the Pacers and face the wrath of the disabled lobby.

That would be use as political dynamite by Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Tories at the 2021 Assembly elections.

 

[Gareth Marston]

There's going to have to be some cast-offs from somewhere. Train services will cease on 1/1/2020 in most of Wales, esp South East Wales, otherwise. The 769s, which are London commuter cast-offs, are the ideal solution. Given a decent interior refurbishment and removal of original 3+2 seating with 2+2, Joe public will think they are new. Run on diesel until the wires are up, then electric when they are. With the glut of EMUs coming off lease soon, (319s, 321s, 323s, 360s) get the wires up first, then worry about new EMUs in 5-10 years time.

Which is best the Welsh Govt needs to ask? Make use of the glut of cast off EMUs that will soon be available and have permanent formation 4 car trains running up and down the valleys in 2 - 3 years time, continue with severe overcrowding as Pacers are being scrapped, or possibly services withdrawn in 2020.

Were on the same page with this. However I fear Welsh Labour want a shiny new whizz bang announcement.