Boris to resign? (Speculation) And who should replace him?

Typhoon

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Personally I don't see anything yet which tells me that Rishi Sunak is up to the job. He might be, but I think that Gove is, it needs a particular kind of ruthless determination which I've not seen in the former so far.
Gove certainly is ruthless, majoring in back-stabbing. I just worry how many friends he has though; when the going gets tough you need colleagues to stick by you rather than plot and scheme. Incidentally, I can't remember seeing him front and centre of late - I thought arrangements for post-Brexit were part of his brief as well as some of the arrangements for Covid-19?
 
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Sad Sprinter

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Not only that, his lies during the referendum campaign are one of the main reasons we are saddled with Brexit in the first place. A ruinous policy talked up and inflicted on the population, for no reason I can see other than the personal aggrandizement of Boris Johnson. Having gained ultimate power not only is he unsurprisingly incompetent at wielding it, but he doesn't even seem to be enjoying it. It's as if he only ever did it to show he could. A bit like the politics of a school debating society.

The right keeps going on about the economic impact of lockdown but they show no concern at all about the much more avoidable economic impact of Brexit. There's also an argument that more severe measures now, in combination with a properly-run track and trace, might bring infections down low enough for confidence to return and economic activity to resume.

Contrary to the view of those who post most of often about it on this forum, the polls I have seen suggest the public is in favour.
I think the Brexit "lies" are a red herring. So a politician lied on a major constitutional question-big deal. How many lies will Sturgeon and her team conjure up in a second Scottish referendum?

The problem with the lies, is that people fell for them. People supposedly decided, that the financing of the National Health Service was more important than being in the EU. This is something no continental country, apart from maybe the Scandinavians and Nordics would ever consider. It tells you just how brittle the UK's attitude to EU membership was if they really were swayed by such dubious claims when most of the entire economic establishment was pleading to stay in.

My thinking regarding the polls is if Northern England is against the lockdown measures they're currently facing, then they wouldn't take kindly to a Labour Party that has no other plan but a long national lockdown. In this situation, the Tories will become the best of a bad bunch. Unless the Lib Dems suddenly find their own plan, of course.
 

C J Snarzell

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My moneys on Michael Gove being the next PM if BJ goes within the next 18 months. Rishi Sunak is a good choice and I think having the first non-white PM would definately be a positive move for many sectors of diversity in the UK. However, I sense Sunak seems slightly disillusioned with his present role as Chancellor and I suspect he would probably choose not to pursue the leadership baton if it was available.

CJ
 

37424

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I think the Brexit "lies" are a red herring. So a politician lied on a major constitutional question-big deal. How many lies will Sturgeon and her team conjure up in a second Scottish referendum?

The problem with the lies, is that people fell for them. People supposedly decided, that the financing of the National Health Service was more important than being in the EU. This is something no continental country, apart from maybe the Scandinavians and Nordics would ever consider. It tells you just how brittle the UK's attitude to EU membership was if they really were swayed by such dubious claims when most of the entire economic establishment was pleading to stay in.

My thinking regarding the polls is if Northern England is against the lockdown measures they're currently facing, then they wouldn't take kindly to a Labour Party that has no other plan but a long national lockdown. In this situation, the Tories will become the best of a bad bunch. Unless the Lib Dems suddenly find their own plan, of course.
The thing is though they didn't just lie but moved the goal posts from easy deal to potential no deal when they found the easy deal wasn't going to be easy. Is the North against Lockdown? I don't know anyone personally who is hugely against in fact the only people I have experienced that are strongly against it are on this forum, but either way by the time we get to the next election I'm not sure it will be much of a factor unless we still have the same problem with this virus as we have now and god help us if we do.

Yes you can argue people shouldn't fall for their lies but I have a bit of an interest in Politics but many people don't and don't spend much time looking into it.

My moneys on Michael Gove being the next PM if BJ goes within the next 18 months. Rishi Sunak is a good choice and I think having the first non-white PM would definately be a positive move for many sectors of diversity in the UK. However, I sense Sunak seems slightly disillusioned with his present role as Chancellor and I suspect he would probably choose not to pursue the leadership baton if it was available.

CJ
Well he seems disillusioned because I don't think he agree's with the level of lockdown or business support his Leader wants, If he was Leader he would have more scope to change that.
 
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edwin_m

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I think the Brexit "lies" are a red herring. So a politician lied on a major constitutional question-big deal. How many lies will Sturgeon and her team conjure up in a second Scottish referendum?

The problem with the lies, is that people fell for them. People supposedly decided, that the financing of the National Health Service was more important than being in the EU. This is something no continental country, apart from maybe the Scandinavians and Nordics would ever consider. It tells you just how brittle the UK's attitude to EU membership was if they really were swayed by such dubious claims when most of the entire economic establishment was pleading to stay in.

My thinking regarding the polls is if Northern England is against the lockdown measures they're currently facing, then they wouldn't take kindly to a Labour Party that has no other plan but a long national lockdown. In this situation, the Tories will become the best of a bad bunch. Unless the Lib Dems suddenly find their own plan, of course.
The lies aren't a red herring if people fell for them, along with the populist lines about blaming the EU for problems mostly of Westminster's own making, and the people who wanted to give Cameron a kicking for austerity. It wasn't just the promises about what would happen, it was proveable lies about what was actually the situation at the time - not just the bus but also things like claiming the UK couldn't stop Turkey joining the EU. As I keep reminding people, all the way from 2017 to 2019 a host of polls showed a majority would prefer to remain in the EU, but it was railroaded through. And if it wasn't for Brexit we'd have a cabinet who might not be agreeable but at least would be mostly competent.

I suspect the reason some in the North are against a lockdown is because they feel singled out. The start and end of the lockdown were mainly driven by what was happening in London - so with hindsight perhaps a regional lockdown in London would have been a better idea back in March. I can't really blame the government for getting it too wrong at that time because so little was known - but many of the mistakes made since then are inexcusable.
 

jamesheet49

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The lies aren't a red herring if people fell for them, along with the populist lines about blaming the EU for problems mostly of Westminster's own making, and the people who wanted to give Cameron a kicking for austerity. It wasn't just the promises about what would happen, it was proveable lies about what was actually the situation at the time - not just the bus but also things like claiming the UK couldn't stop Turkey joining the EU. As I keep reminding people, all the way from 2017 to 2019 a host of polls showed a majority would prefer to remain in the EU, but it was railroaded through. And if it wasn't for Brexit we'd have a cabinet who might not be agreeable but at least would be mostly competent.

I suspect the reason some in the North are against a lockdown is because they feel singled out. The start and end of the lockdown were mainly driven by what was happening in London - so with hindsight perhaps a regional lockdown in London would have been a better idea back in March. I can't really blame the government for getting it too wrong at that time because so little was known - but many of the mistakes made since then are inexcusable.
I didn't think Brexit chat was allowed here, given that I saw no threads about it when I joined.

What I'm surprised about is how the Northern Ireland related international law breaking has been tolerated. Presumably all the potential Tory leader candidates are all on board with this, and were aware of this plan when BJ signed the withdrawal agreement. So doesn't that make them all liars?
 

edwin_m

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I didn't think Brexit chat was allowed here, given that I saw no threads about it when I joined.

What I'm surprised about is how the Northern Ireland related international law breaking has been tolerated. Presumably all the potential Tory leader candidates are all on board with this, and were aware of this plan when BJ signed the withdrawal agreement. So doesn't that make them all liars?
There was a huge thread about Brexit that was closed last year. I for one think there's not much worth saying about it any more as none of us can change anything.

Except to make sure Boris is held accountable for his mistakes and his deliberate deceptions.

I suspect the business of breaking international law was incompetence rather than conspiracy. In the haste to get an agreement a year ago someone messed up, either didn't notice, assumed they could clear up the fudge later and now it's coming home to roost. If fudge can do that. Plus they totally don't understand how the EU and most other countries actually operate, so didn't realise the reaction they would get from the EU and others such as the US democrats. Fortunately it's probably sunk all prospect of a US trade deal for the foreseeable future.
 

317 forever

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There was a huge thread about Brexit that was closed last year. I for one think there's not much worth saying about it any more as none of us can change anything.

Except to make sure Boris is held accountable for his mistakes and his deliberate deceptions.

I suspect the business of breaking international law was incompetence rather than conspiracy. In the haste to get an agreement a year ago someone messed up, either didn't notice, assumed they could clear up the fudge later and now it's coming home to roost. If fudge can do that. Plus they totally don't understand how the EU and most other countries actually operate, so didn't realise the reaction they would get from the EU and others such as the US democrats. Fortunately it's probably sunk all prospect of a US trade deal for the foreseeable future.
Even if it started from incompetence, we had Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis admit that they would be breaking international law in a "limited and specific way". Even leaving aside their not caring how Brexit will affect communities both sides of the border, this attitude could encourage many of the public to do likewise when they don't like "limited and specific" aspects of new Covid restrictions.
 

The Ham

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Another issue is broadcasting. In Ireland you can get live UK channels, but you can't get BBC iPlayer and probably most other UK catch up TV services, at least without a VPN. You can get RTE, but that's a very low budget organisation compared to the BBC so clearly cannot offer anything like the same range or standard of programming.
However, of you had a single TV station (this goes for other businesses to, although maybe not Amazon) for Scotland and the island of Ireland (with some differences in programming between the two) then you've more than doubled the market for RTE to about 12,250,000 people.

It then makes it that it may well be worth its while being a service that is offered within England and Wales too (bearing in mind that there's a fair number of Scotts and Irish who live and/or work within England and Wales). How that is offered (Freeview, Freesat, online subscription or other) could be up for debate, however it would have a bigger purchasing power and/or could have a significant user base who are used to paying for a TV licence, either of which would likely change its financial situation.

On the other side of the coin is expect the BBC to offer a paid for service, so as to retain some of the money lost from no longer having the TV licence money (although they would also see savings from withdrawing from Scotland and Northern Ireland by not having to run regional news and some of the extra content which they offer).

Alternatively, given the significant challenges in everything it may well be that you get a partnership between RTE and the BBC to provide a single set of services across the two islands. In that you could have RTE take the Freeview/Freesat channels of BBC3/BBC4 but now funded by advertising (and some of the scheduling filled with some BBC content) and offer BBC online content (at a small cost) to households within what's currently the Republic of Ireland.
 

birchesgreen

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Another issue is broadcasting. In Ireland you can get live UK channels, but you can't get BBC iPlayer and probably most other UK catch up TV services, at least without a VPN. You can get RTE, but that's a very low budget organisation compared to the BBC so clearly cannot offer anything like the same range or standard of programming.
No BBC would be a big plus not a minus for me if i was choosing another country to live in to be honest.
 

yorksrob

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Slightly OT, but I seem to be finding that much of BBC Scotland's output is better than that served up for the rest of the country.
 

edwin_m

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Even if it started from incompetence, we had Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis admit that they would be breaking international law in a "limited and specific way". Even leaving aside their not caring how Brexit will affect communities both sides of the border, this attitude could encourage many of the public to do likewise when they don't like "limited and specific" aspects of new Covid restrictions.
Or any other law you care to mention.

What I was meaning was that the government (the previous one, but mostly the same people by that time) was incompetent in rushing to a deal and including things in it that they later realized wouldn't work or wouldn't be acceptable to some of the people that they had to satisfy. Now they are trying to get themselves out of that hole, but saying you are breaking international law isn't the way to do it.
 

The Ham

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Or any other law you care to mention.

What I was meaning was that the government (the previous one, but mostly the same people by that time) was incompetent in rushing to a deal and including things in it that they later realized wouldn't work or wouldn't be acceptable to some of the people that they had to satisfy. Now they are trying to get themselves out of that hole, but saying you are breaking international law isn't the way to do it.
Indeed, one of the problem with getting a deal is that of fishing.

The French and Spanish are never going to agree to something which is worse than they currently have (and would probably want something better) yet the UK government can never agree to that because fishing was such a significant issue of EU for so many people.

Even though few are employed by it (either directly or indirectly - some 24,000, as a comparison there's about 20,000 train drivers, and makes up less than 0.1% of jobs) it's likely to be the thing which stops the UK getting a deal. Chances are that's going to impact negatively on lots of other industries.

However if Boris gets a worse deal for fishing then that's not going to end well, given how important fishing is to those who wanted to have Brexit.

Anyway, whilst the EU did harm the fishing industry through quota's (and probably more so than needed) and poor management through things being too centralised, there would have needed to have been changes to the industry anyway so that we didn't deplete fish stocks (which had been taking for some time).
 

37424

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Indeed, one of the problem with getting a deal is that of fishing.

The French and Spanish are never going to agree to something which is worse than they currently have (and would probably want something better) yet the UK government can never agree to that because fishing was such a significant issue of EU for so many people.

Even though few are employed by it (either directly or indirectly - some 24,000, as a comparison there's about 20,000 train drivers, and makes up less than 0.1% of jobs) it's likely to be the thing which stops the UK getting a deal. Chances are that's going to impact negatively on lots of other industries.

However if Boris gets a worse deal for fishing then that's not going to end well, given how important fishing is to those who wanted to have Brexit.

Anyway, whilst the EU did harm the fishing industry through quota's (and probably more so than needed) and poor management through things being too centralised, there would have needed to have been changes to the industry anyway so that we didn't deplete fish stocks (which had been taking for some time).
I know what you are saying but if fishing prevents a deal then frankly it would be crazy since most estimates put loss of EU trade at around 30 to 40% which is about 2.5% of GDP, but even more of a concern will be how many companies that export a lot to EU simply bail out of the UK. Even with a trade deal why would a company such as Tesla come to the UK as a European Manufacturing base when you will still have to deal with customs checks and admin etc, well of course the simple answer is they wouldn't, they are going to Germany where they can export all over the EU and deal with customs paperwork just for the UK imports.

An article in the Mirror suggests Boris is going in the spring, well if he did that I think there would be a lot of anger out there especially if was in the midst of a No Deal Brexit, a Rat deserting the sinking ship, his reasons for going, he's not enjoying the job and it doesn't pay enough, well believe that or not I guess.
 

Sad Sprinter

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The lies aren't a red herring if people fell for them, along with the populist lines about blaming the EU for problems mostly of Westminster's own making, and the people who wanted to give Cameron a kicking for austerity. It wasn't just the promises about what would happen, it was proveable lies about what was actually the situation at the time - not just the bus but also things like claiming the UK couldn't stop Turkey joining the EU. As I keep reminding people, all the way from 2017 to 2019 a host of polls showed a majority would prefer to remain in the EU, but it was railroaded through. And if it wasn't for Brexit we'd have a cabinet who might not be agreeable but at least would be mostly competent.

I suspect the reason some in the North are against a lockdown is because they feel singled out. The start and end of the lockdown were mainly driven by what was happening in London - so with hindsight perhaps a regional lockdown in London would have been a better idea back in March. I can't really blame the government for getting it too wrong at that time because so little was known - but many of the mistakes made since then are inexcusable.
That's exactly my point-people fell for them. These lies could be easily debunked-and they were, but people didn't care. Surely, the conviction that the EU is the bedrock of a peaceful and stable European nation is ironclad? I doubt the same lies would work in any other EU nation-as I said, it shows how brittle our feelings of the EU was as a nation. Sure, Cameron could never have called a referendum and we could have another 25 years of eurosecpticism dominating British politics and press.
 

yorkie

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I have to agree, its weird to see the left so hellbent on lockdowns. Partly, its because I don't think the left appreciate that "the economy" exists in real terms, rather they seem to see it as "bankers exchanging money". Sure, sacrificing money in favour of saving lives is an honourable cause, but its nowhere near as simple as that....
Yes it makes no sense. Problem is it's not as simple as left vs right. Those who support lockdowns tend to be more authoritarian than anything else, and include people on both left and right.

See the article I linked to in the opening post of the Our total reliance on a vaccine and putting life on hold until it's rolled out thread, which interviews left leaning doctors who are against lockdowns.

It's a really good interview; if anyone reading this considers themselves to be left of centre and supports locking down, I'd challenge them to read that article and state what they disagree with, and why.

I don't think Boris wanted to do many of the measures that were taken but was forced to, but his constant bungling and U-turning will go down in memory as one of the worst performances of a PM in recent memory.

He seems to be equally hated by pro-lockdown people (for not locking down early enough or long enough in the first lockdown and not having tighter restrictions right now) and anti-lockdown people (for locking down as long as he did and for having the restrictions we have now).
I wonder if Labour's harsh stance on lockdowns will damage their recent rise in the polls.
The likes of Starmer (who I was keen on until he supported lockdowns; that's it now as far as I'm concerned), Drakeford (who is power mad) and Maskell (our MP in York) have ensured I will not consider voting Labour for the foreseeable future, that's for sure. It's abundantly clear to me that we'd be in a national lockdown if it was up to Labour.

That said, I think whoever is in power right now is going to be criticised by at least some people, as there is no clear and obvious strategy and the country is extremely divided. The current Government are so unelectable right now, it would take a complete revamp for them to have any chance at the next election.

I predict Boris will resign once the vaccine is being rolled out. He knows his position in the medium to long term is no longer tenable but I think he will wait until there is some good news. It also means whoever replaces him won't have to make unpopular decisions with regard to lockdowns and restrictions.
 
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oxfordray1

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Yes it makes no sense. Problem is it's not as simple as left vs right. Those who support lockdowns tend to be more authoritarian than anything else, and include people on both left and right.

See the article I linked to in the opening post of the Our total reliance on a vaccine and putting life on hold until it's rolled out thread, which interviews left leaning doctors who are against lockdowns.

It's a really good interview; if anyone reading this considers themselves to be left of centre and supports locking down, I'd challenge them to read that article and state what they disagree with, and why.

I don't think Boris wanted to do many of the measures that were taken but was forced to, but his constant bungling and U-turning will go down in memory as one of the worst performances of a PM in recent memory.

He seems to be equally hated by pro-lockdown people (for not locking down early enough or long enough in the first lockdown and not having tighter restrictions right now) and anti-lockdown people (for locking down as long as he did and for having the restrictions we have now).
The likes of Starmer (who I was keen on until he supported lockdowns; that's it now as far as I'm concerned), Drakeford (who is power mad) and Maskell (our MP in York) have ensured I will not consider voting Labour for the foreseeable future, that's for sure. It's abundantly clear to me that we'd be in a national lockdown if it was up to Labour.

That said, I think whoever is in power right now is going to be criticised by at least some people, as there is no clear and obvious strategy and the country is extremely divided. The current Government are so unelectable right now, it would take a complete revamp for them to have any chance at the next election.

I predict Boris will resign once the vaccine is being rolled out. He knows his position in the medium to long term is no longer tenable but I think he will wait until there is some good news. It also means whoever replaces him won't have to make unpopular decisions with regard to lockdowns and restrictions.
Its funny but of all the people I know, none are anti-lockdown or pro-lockdown. They are too busy trying to do their best. Personally, I don't know enough to make an informed judgement.
 

Busaholic

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Yes it makes no sense. Problem is it's not as simple as left vs right. Those who support lockdowns tend to be more authoritarian than anything else, and include people on both left and right.

See the article I linked to in the opening post of the Our total reliance on a vaccine and putting life on hold until it's rolled out thread, which interviews left leaning doctors who are against lockdowns.

It's a really good interview; if anyone reading this considers themselves to be left of centre and supports locking down, I'd challenge them to read that article and state what they disagree with, and why.

I don't think Boris wanted to do many of the measures that were taken but was forced to, but his constant bungling and U-turning will go down in memory as one of the worst performances of a PM in recent memory.

He seems to be equally hated by pro-lockdown people (for not locking down early enough or long enough in the first lockdown and not having tighter restrictions right now) and anti-lockdown people (for locking down as long as he did and for having the restrictions we have now).
The likes of Starmer (who I was keen on until he supported lockdowns; that's it now as far as I'm concerned), Drakeford (who is power mad) and Maskell (our MP in York) have ensured I will not consider voting Labour for the foreseeable future, that's for sure. It's abundantly clear to me that we'd be in a national lockdown if it was up to Labour.

That said, I think whoever is in power right now is going to be criticised by at least some people, as there is no clear and obvious strategy and the country is extremely divided. The current Government are so unelectable right now, it would take a complete revamp for them to have any chance at the next election.

I predict Boris will resign once the vaccine is being rolled out. He knows his position in the medium to long term is no longer tenable but I think he will wait until there is some good news. It also means whoever replaces him won't have to make unpopular decisions with regard to lockdowns and restrictions.
You (and others) may hazily recollect that, prior to the expected announcement of Starmer's election by his party to the leadership, I posited on here that perhaps a National Government should have been created when the imminent nature of a pandemic became clear, but no support was forthcoming. I've also stated that I supported Lisa Nandy as the best remaining candidate in the leadership contest, fearing that Starmer might conform to the stereotype suggested by his previous occupation and refuse to get involved in anything that might be considered 'party political', regardless of the need to, which I fear has exceeded even my own fairly modest expectations. If Starmer had acted with a smidgeon of passion and a clearly focussed attack on the wretched Halfcock, his department and the dodgy commercial contracts they'd entered into on Track and Trace, as well as the whole testing process, then maybe now we wouldn't be speculating on Johnson's (imminent, or not, as the case may be) departure as P.M., as he might have been out before his counterpart over the pond. Sturgeon's stock, so high among many over the past few months even among many anti- Scot Nats like myself, is declining rapidly, though it would take a great deal to bring it down to Johnson's level. The Welsh government are suffering from a collective hysteria, it would appear, and even a left-of-centre guy like me thinks perhaps they should just be abolished now, as an experiment in devolution that has failed abjectly. but Plaid Cymru and their smattering of supporters would of course go on the offensive and be taken too much notice of for it to happen.
 

nlogax

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I predict Boris will resign once the vaccine is being rolled out. He knows his position in the medium to long term is no longer tenable but I think he will wait until there is some good news. It also means whoever replaces him won't have to make unpopular decisions with regard to lockdowns and restrictions.
No. His ego won't let him resign. Too many people underestimate politicians' desires to hang on to position of power in spite of having absolutely nothing going for them.
 
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No. His ego won't let him resign. Too many people underestimate politicians' desires to hang on to position of power in spite of having absolutely nothing going for them.
In truth, if we step back and think about this, every MP is useless! The same goes for 99% of the general public too. In real terms, whoever we have leading us we are doomed! :rolleyes:

Let's face it every government has something really bad that happened on their watch. Just that covid is slightly bigger than most!o_O
 

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